Mexico -1.5 vs. South Africa

Mexico -1.5 (+120 at DraftKings)

The first instinct in the World Cup opener is usually to look for the underdog. The host team is carrying all the pressure, the game can get nervy. But I think Mexico will leverage that ravenous crowd and the harsh atmosphere and elevation of the Azteca stadium to easily dispatch an inferior South Africa team.

This is not a bet that Mexico is suddenly one of the tournament’s elite teams. It is a bet that Mexico has enough attacking talent, enough home-field edge, and enough urgency in the opener to eventually wear South Africa down. Mexico should control most of the ball and generate the bulk of the dangerous chances. If they get the first goal, South Africa will eventually have to come out of its shell, and that is where this can turn from a professional 1-0 type game into a 2-0 or 3-1 win. The moneyline is too expensive, but Mexico -1.5 gives us a better price on the game script I think is most likely.

Czechia Draw No Bet vs. South Korea

Czechia Draw No Bet (+100 at DraftKings or FanDuel)

The late game looks much closer to me than the market’s slight lean toward South Korea. South Korea has the more recognizable attacking names, led by Son Heung-min, and they are certainly dangerous if the game opens up. But Czechia has a profile I like in a World Cup group stage opener: organized, physical, difficult to play through, and dangerous on set pieces.

I expect goals to be hard to come by in this one and the draw is very live, which is why I prefer draw no bet instead of taking Czechia straight up. South Korea may have the higher-end individual talent, but Czechia has enough structure and enough attacking threat through Patrik Schick and their set-piece game to win this match outright. In a game that feels closer to a toss-up than the market suggests, getting protection on the draw is the smart way to back the team I think is slightly undervalued.

Odds referenced were available at the listed sportsbooks at time of writing and may move before kickoff. Always shop lines and bet responsibly.