Today’s card is mostly about choosing the right way to play the favorites. Portugal should win, Colombia should create chances, and Croatia should be better than Panama. But there is a difference between liking the better team and paying a bad price for the most obvious version of the bet.
So I’m not laying giant moneylines. I’m not chasing the biggest alternate spreads. I’m trying to find the game script that makes the most sense at a playable number.
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan - Under 3.5 Goals
Portugal-Uzbekistan Under 3.5 Goals (-138 at Bet365)
The first bet is Portugal-Uzbekistan under 3.5 goals.
Portugal are the better team and should be in control for long stretches, but I do not think we need to overcomplicate this one by tying it to a Portugal result. The under 3.5 is priced reasonably enough on its own, and it covers the most likely versions of this game.
Portugal’s opener against DR Congo was a good reminder that talent does not automatically turn into a blowout. They can dominate the ball, control territory, and still not turn every possession into a clear chance. Uzbekistan are also not the kind of team that should come out reckless here. Their best chance is to stay compact, make Portugal work, and try to keep the game alive as long as possible.
That points more toward a professional Portugal performance than a fireworks show. A 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, or 3-0 all cash this bet. Even if Portugal win comfortably, we do not need Uzbekistan to offer much resistance for 90 minutes. We just need the game to avoid turning into a four-goal track meet.
With Portugal likely to value control after dropping points in the opener, I like the under by itself.
Colombia vs. DR Congo - Over 2.5 Goals
Colombia-DR Congo Over 2.5 Goals (+110 at Bet365)
The second bet is Colombia-DR Congo over 2.5 goals.
Colombia are one of the more dangerous attacking teams in this tournament. They have pace, creativity, wide threats, and enough midfield quality to keep pressure on for long stretches. They scored three in their opener against Uzbekistan and should again have the attacking edge here.
But the reason I like the over more than simply backing Colombia is that the defensive side is still the shakiest part of this team. Colombia can control games, but they are not a team I fully trust to kill off every counter or keep things completely clean at the back. DR Congo already showed against Portugal that they are not just here to defend and hope. They can frustrate a favorite, they can break quickly, and they can create enough danger to contribute to the total.
That is the key. This does not have to be Colombia scoring three by themselves, although they are capable of doing that. The cleaner path is Colombia getting their goals while DR Congo make the game uncomfortable enough to add one of their own.
If Colombia score early, DR Congo have to come out. If DR Congo score, Colombia have more than enough firepower to respond. Either way, this feels like a game with more goal equity than the price suggests.
Croatia -1 Asian Handicap vs. Panama
Croatia -1 Asian Handicap (-140 at DraftKings)
The final bet is Croatia -1 on the Asian handicap against Panama.
Croatia were punished by England in the opener, but that does not mean they are suddenly a team to fade against Panama. They still have the better midfield, the better technical players, and the better tournament pedigree. This is exactly the kind of game where a veteran team should understand the situation and respond.
Panama deserve respect. They are organized, physical, and capable of turning games into a grind. That is why I prefer the Asian handicap to laying a more aggressive spread. With Croatia -1, a one-goal win pushes. We only lose if Croatia fail to win the game. If they win by two or more, the bet cashes.
That structure fits the matchup. Croatia should control the ball and eventually wear Panama down, but Panama are stubborn enough that I do not want to need a blowout. A 1-0 win would be frustrating, but it does not cost us. A 2-0 or 3-1 type result gets us paid.
After losing the opener, Croatia cannot afford to mess around. They need three points, and they should have enough quality to get them.
Odds referenced were available at the listed sportsbooks at time of writing and may move before kickoff. The record tracker assumes one unit risked on each official posted selection. Always shop lines and bet responsibly.