Today’s card has some obvious superstar angles with Messi, Mbappé and Haaland all in action, but the best bets are a little more specific than just backing stars to score. I’m looking for the game scripts that make the most sense: Norway and Senegal both creating chances, France doing their damage early, and Argentina-Austria leaning into the goal trend that has defined much of the tournament so far.
Norway vs. Senegal - Both Teams to Score
Norway-Senegal Both Teams to Score (-143 at Bet365)
The first bet is Norway-Senegal both teams to score.
Norway’s attack is real. That is no longer just a qualifying story or a Haaland hype story. They put four past Iraq in the opener, and with Haaland finishing chances, Ødegaard pulling strings, and enough runners around them, they are going to be dangerous against just about anyone.
But Senegal are a major step up from Iraq. They lost 3-1 to France, but they still created problems and still found a goal against one of the best teams in the tournament. Their pace and counterattacking threat are exactly the type of thing that can bother Norway if Norway push numbers forward.
That is why I prefer both teams to score over the full-game over. Norway should get their chances, but Senegal are too dangerous to assume they get blanked. A 1-1 or 2-1 type game feels very live, and this lets us bet on both attacking profiles without needing the game to completely fly open.
France vs. Iraq - 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals
France-Iraq 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals (-120 at Bet365)
The second bet is France-Iraq over 1.5 goals in the first half.
This is a better way to play France’s attacking advantage than chasing a big full-game total. France are clearly the better team, and if they are going to dominate this match, the cleanest window is probably early. Iraq conceded four to Norway in their opener, and now they have to deal with an even deeper French attack.
The risk with full-game overs in this kind of spot is game state. If France go up 2-0 or 3-0, they may take their foot off the gas, manage minutes, and turn the second half into a professional training exercise. The first-half over avoids some of that. We are betting on France starting fast before the game gets managed.
Iraq may also help the bet if they can offer anything on the counter or from a set piece, but this is mostly about France pressure. If the favorite scores early, Iraq have to come out a little bit, and that is when the second goal becomes very live before halftime.
Argentina vs. Austria - Over 2.5 Goals
Argentina-Austria Over 2.5 Goals (-105 at FanDuel)
The final bet is Argentina-Austria over 2.5 goals.
I’ll be honest: this is not the sharpest pure numbers angle on the board. If you strip out some of the recent outliers, there is a perfectly reasonable case that this should be a controlled Argentina game that lands 2-0 or 1-1. But at some point, we also have to acknowledge the tournament we are watching. Goals have been up, favorites have generally been creating chances, and this matchup has enough attacking ingredients to get to three.
Austria are not built to just sit in a shell for 90 minutes. Under Ralf Rangnick, they want to press, play vertically, and make games uncomfortable. That can create chances for Austria, but it can also create space for Argentina if they break through the first wave. And Argentina are one of the worst teams in the world to give space to.
This bet is really about trusting the trend and the matchup volatility. If Austria press and Argentina play through it, there will be chances. If Austria score first, the game opens immediately. If Argentina score first, Austria are not the kind of team that will simply accept a 1-0 loss and disappear.
It is not my most contrarian bet of the tournament, but with the way this World Cup has played, I am willing to back the attacking talent and the game script getting us to three.
Odds referenced were available at the listed sportsbooks at time of writing and may move before kickoff. The record tracker assumes one unit risked on each official posted selection. Always shop lines and bet responsibly.