Round of 32 Recap: The Favorites Survive, But Not Without Chaos

The first-ever World Cup Round of 32 is complete, and if there was any concern that adding another knockout round would water down the drama, those concerns should be put to rest.

This round had a little bit of everything. The hosts all advanced. Several favorites rolled. Several others survived by the thinnest possible margin. Germany and the Netherlands are gone. Cape Verde nearly pulled off one of the greatest upsets in World Cup history. Messi, Mbappé, Kane, and Haaland all delivered in huge moments. And the bracket now has a much clearer shape heading into the Round of 16.

In other words, the expanded knockout round did exactly what FIFA probably hoped it would do. It gave us more games, more jeopardy, more chances for underdogs to dream, and more moments where the biggest stars in the world had to actually drag their teams across the line.

Round of 32 Results

Paraguay Stuns Germany

The biggest result of the round was Paraguay taking down Germany.

A team that the US blew off the field in the opening group game played Germany to a 1-1 draw through 90 minutes and extra time before prevailing 4-3 in a dramatic penalty shootout. The Germans looked to have avoided disaster in extra time when Jonathan Tah headed in a goal to give them the lead, but it was called back by VAR for a foul on the Paraguay keeper.

A shocking loss for the Germans, who may have thought they had resolved some issues by advancing from the group stage for the first time since their 2014 World Cup trophy. Instead they are once again out before the Round of 16, and there is sure to be some soul searching for the historic soccer power.

For Paraguay, it is a massive moment. The country declared a national holiday following the victory. They went from being a dangerous but limited Round of 32 opponent to one of the stories of the tournament. Their reward is France, perhaps the most impressive team in the tournament thus far, but they have already proved they can drag a heavyweight into uncomfortable territory.

Cape Verde Nearly Pulls Off the Impossible

As big as Paraguay’s win was, it would have taken a back seat had Cape Verde pulled off the impossible and taken down Argentina.

The reigning World Cup champions survived 3-2 after extra time, but barely. Cape Verde twice erased one-goal deficits, pushed the defending champions deep into extra time, and for a few minutes it genuinely looked like they might be on the verge of one of the most unbelievable wins in World Cup history.

Messi opened the scoring in the 29th minute with his seventh goal of the tournament and record-extending 20th career World Cup goal. Cape Verde answered through Deroy Duarte in the second half. Lisandro Martínez put Argentina back ahead early in extra time, only for Sidny Lopes Cabral to level it again in the 103rd minute with one of the goals of the tournament, a stunning curler from the edge of the box. Then, in the 111th minute, Argentina finally found the winner when a Messi corner created chaos and Cristian Romero’s header deflected in off Diney Borges.

Initially it looked like Messi would get the assist on the game-winner, which would have made him the all-time World Cup assist leader in addition to scorer. However, it was officially ruled an own goal, so that will have to wait.

Cape Verde leave the tournament with no need for moral-victory clichés, because this was more than that. They were one of the stories of the World Cup. A nation of roughly 500,000 people drew Spain in the group stage, reached the knockouts in its debut appearance, and then pushed the defending champions to the edge. That is the kind of run people will remember long after the bracket moves on.

All Three Hosts Are Still Alive

The other big headline from the Round of 32: all three host nations are through.

Canada opened the round by beating South Africa 1-0, Mexico beat Ecuador 2-0, and the US beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0. That means the tournament keeps all three home crowds alive into the Round of 16, which is a pretty ideal outcome for FIFA and for the atmosphere of the event.

Canada’s win was historic, giving them their first knockout-stage win at a World Cup. Their prize is Morocco, which just knocked out the Netherlands and is favored to advance again. Mexico’s reward is England at the Azteca, which is one of the best matchups of the round. The altitude, the crowd, and the momentum around El Tri will all be real factors. By nature of this tournament, Mexico has technically earned their “quinto partido,” but they will need another huge win to advance to the quarterfinals for the first time since they last hosted in 1986.

The US, meanwhile, had the most dramatic host-nation win. The Americans beat Bosnia 2-0 despite going down to 10 men after Folarin Balogun’s red card. Balogun scored the opener, Malik Tillman added a huge late free kick, and the US earned its first World Cup knockout win since 2002.

Among the three hosts, the US also looks like the best bet to reach the quarterfinals. That does not mean they have an easy game. Belgium are still a tough opponent and Balogun’s suspension is a real problem. But the market has USA-Belgium as basically a coin flip, with Belgium only a slight favorite to advance. That is a much better position than Canada, who are a clear underdog against Morocco, and Mexico, who are a slight underdog against England.

The story before the tournament was whether the hosts could avoid embarrassment. Now all three are in the last 16, and all three have at least a plausible path to something more.

The Stars Keep Delivering

One of the best parts of this tournament so far is that the biggest names are not just hanging around. They are deciding games.

Messi remains the headliner, because at this point every Argentina game feels like another entry in the final chapter of the greatest career ever. He is already the all-time World Cup goals leader, and after the Cape Verde win he has 20 career World Cup goals and seven in this tournament alone.

Mbappé, who will probably surpass him as the all-time goal leader at some point, answered in his own way. France cruised past Sweden 3-0, and Mbappé scored twice to keep his Golden Boot chase alive and reinforce what has been obvious all tournament: France are the most complete attacking team in the world. They do not need Mbappé to do everything, but when he is scoring at this rate, the whole thing starts to feel inevitable.

Harry Kane rescued England from a much uglier story. DR Congo scored early and had England in real danger, but Kane scored in the 75th and 86th minutes to turn a potential disaster into a 2-1 win. It was not convincing from England, but knockout soccer does not care how clean it looks. Kane did exactly what elite strikers are supposed to do, delivering with outstanding class when his team needed it the most.

And then there was Haaland. Norway beat Ivory Coast 2-1, with Haaland scoring the winner in the 86th minute to give Norway their first-ever World Cup knockout victory. The reward is Brazil in the Round of 16, which is a brutal draw, but Norway are not just happy to be here and should give Brazil everything they can handle. With Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, they have enough top-end talent to challenge anyone.

That has been the theme of the tournament. The expanded field has created more openings for surprise teams, but the superstars are still the superstars. When the game tightens, when legs get heavy, when panic starts to creep in, the teams with Messi, Mbappé, Kane, and Haaland still have the ultimate cheat code.

France’s Path Opens Up

The biggest bracket winner from the Round of 32 might be France.

They did their part by hammering Sweden 3-0, but the bigger news was what happened around them. Germany lost. The Netherlands lost. That removes two of the bigger names from France’s side of the bracket and leaves them with Paraguay in the Round of 16, followed by the winner of Canada-Morocco if they advance.

That does not mean France are guaranteed anything. Paraguay just knocked out Germany and will not be intimidated by the assignment. Morocco are absolutely capable of making another deep run. Canada will have nothing to lose. But if you are France, you would much rather be staring at Paraguay and then Canada or Morocco than a route that included Germany or the Netherlands.

They are still likely to meet Spain or Portugal in the semifinal, but their route to that point got a little lighter, making them the current betting favorite to win it all (around +175).

Argentina Still Has the Cleanest Path

France may be the favorite, but Argentina still might have the cleanest path of the true contenders.

While the Cape Verde game was a warning sign, it would have been more bad luck than poor execution. Argentina finished the game with 2.26 xG to 0.47, suggesting they were undone by some outstanding finishes from Cape Verde. They were dragged into extra time by a debutant, they had to defend desperately late, and they leaned heavily on Messi again. But the bracket still sets up nicely.

Argentina get Egypt in the Round of 16, then the winner of Switzerland-Colombia. That is not easy, but compared to Spain-Portugal, Mexico-England, USA-Belgium, or Brazil-Norway, Argentina will take it. They avoided the most dangerous landmines and still have a realistic path to the semifinals without facing another top-five favorite.

The most interesting potential matchup is Colombia. That would be a rematch of the 2024 Copa América final, and Colombia have looked like one of the most dangerous non-favorites in the tournament. They are athletic, organized, and have enough attacking quality and familiarity to go toe-to-toe with Argentina. If Argentina sleepwalks through that game the way they did for stretches against Cape Verde, they could absolutely be punished.

Still, the path is there. And as long as Messi is playing like this, Argentina remain very much alive.

England Gets the Azteca Test

England survived DR Congo, but the next challenge is a completely different thing.

Mexico at the Azteca is not just a soccer game. It is altitude, noise, pressure, emotion, and a host nation that suddenly believes this tournament could become something historic. England will have more talent on paper, but this is exactly the kind of spot where that can stop mattering if they start slowly again.

Against DR Congo, England were flat for long stretches and needed Kane to bail them out late. Against Mexico, a slow start could turn the entire stadium into a storm. Mexico have not conceded yet in the knockout stage, they are riding the energy of the home crowd, and the market has England favored but not by much.

This is the kind of game that tells us whether England are a real contender or just a talented team waiting for the usual England anxiety to arrive. They have the players to win the tournament. But winning a World Cup means surviving environments like this, not just handling games where the spreadsheet says you are better.

The Round of 16 Is Loaded

After six days of knockout soccer, the tournament has been cut from 32 to 16, and the bracket now looks fantastic.

Canada-Morocco gives one of those teams a real chance to reach a World Cup quarterfinal. Paraguay-France is a classic underdog-vs-superpower test. Brazil-Norway gives us Brazil against Haaland. Mexico-England might be the best atmosphere of the entire tournament. Spain-Portugal is a heavyweight Iberian rivalry. USA-Belgium is a rematch of one of the most famous modern US World Cup heartbreaks. Argentina-Egypt gives Messi another step in the title defense. Switzerland-Colombia is quietly one of the most balanced games of the round.

This is where the tournament starts to feel real. The group stage is about survival. The Round of 32 was about adjusting to the new format and avoiding disaster. Now the bracket has thinned out enough that every game has weight.

France look like the favorite. Argentina still have the clearest route among the top teams. Spain and Portugal will remove one contender from the field.

The Round of 32 gave us chaos, scares, stars, and one true heavyweight casualty.

Now the real tournament begins.