Europe’s three other major leagues begin their seasons over the next week, and they offer three very different versions of a title race.
Serie A is legitimately open, with the defending champions facing a deep group of recognizable challengers. The Bundesliga is once again Bayern Munich against the field, except this version of Bayern is coming off one of the most dominant domestic seasons in recent memory. Ligue 1 somehow has an even heavier favorite, with Paris Saint-Germain trying to extend a run of domestic dominance while also defending back-to-back Champions League titles.
For American fans, there is plenty to follow beyond the title races. Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie remain at major Italian clubs, several of the most interesting young USMNT players are scattered around Germany and France suddenly has perhaps the deepest collection of established Americans of any major European league.
Three leagues, three very different markets
The title races at a glance
Serie A
Inter begins the new season as defending champion after winning both Serie A and the Coppa Italia under Cristian Chivu, but this is hardly a one-team league.
The current preseason title prices have Inter at -110, followed by Juventus and Napoli around +500, AC Milan at +600, Roma at +900 and Como at +2500. That is a much more compressed market than either Germany or France.
Americans to Watch
Five Americans to watch
Serie A
Christian Pulisic
AC Milan · AttackerHealth first, then another central role in Milan’s attack.
Weston McKennie
Juventus · MidfielderVersatility keeps surviving every Juventus reset.
Yunus Musah
AC Milan · MidfielderA return from loan in search of a stable role.
Benjamin Cremaschi
Parma · MidfielderA healthy season can finally show what translates.
Gianluca Busio
Venezia · MidfielderThe captain returns to Italy’s top flight.
Christian Pulisic · AC Milan
Pulisic remains the most important American club player to follow, although his season begins with a health question.
He suffered a significant right-leg injury during the World Cup loss to Belgium and has only recently begun working his way back into Milan training. The positive news is that he has returned to partial team work, but he may not immediately be ready for a full workload when Milan opens the season against Torino.
Once healthy, Pulisic should again be one of Milan’s primary attackers. New coach Ruben Amorim, formerly of Manchester United, generally wants attacking midfielders operating underneath the striker in his 3-4-2-1. That could be an excellent role for Pulisic because it gets him closer to goal without requiring him to provide all of the width himself.
The larger question is whether Milan can become a real title contender around him. After another coaching change, Pulisic will once again have to adapt to a different structure, but he has already proven over multiple seasons that his production in Italy was not a one-year fluke. His numbers were down in the second half last season, but the underlying chance-creation numbers suggest that was more bad luck than poor performance.
Weston McKennie · Juventus
McKennie enters yet another Juventus season having survived a summer when his future appeared uncertain.
Juventus extended him through 2030 earlier this year, a reflection of the value he has repeatedly provided by filling almost every imaginable midfield and wide role. Under Luciano Spalletti, that versatility should continue to matter.
Regular minutes for a Juventus team attempting to rejoin the title race should keep him firmly entrenched as one of the key USMNT midfielders.
Yunus Musah · AC Milan
Musah is back after spending last season on loan at Atalanta and badly needs a stable role after playing only 664 Serie A minutes across the season. He has featured in midfield for Milan during the preseason, but it remains to be seen whether the coach has enough confidence in him for more meaningful minutes once the season starts.
Benjamin Cremaschi · Parma
Cremaschi is now a permanent Parma player after his loan was converted into a long-term deal. His first year in Italy was largely erased by injury, so this season should tell us much more about whether the pressing, box-running and goal production he showed at youth international level can translate to Serie A.
Gianluca Busio · Venezia
Busio is easy to overlook after Venezia spent last season outside Serie A, but he returns to the top flight in a much more important role than the last time we saw him there.
The 24-year-old is now Venezia’s captain and has become one of the central figures in the club after five seasons in Italy. He has developed into a more complete midfielder than the teenager who initially left MLS, capable of receiving deeper in possession, helping progress the ball and contributing farther forward when given freedom to join the attack.
For the USMNT, this season gives Busio another opportunity to force himself back into a crowded midfield conversation. His technical ability has never really been the question. He needs to show that he can consistently influence Serie A games physically and defensively while maintaining the passing qualities that distinguish him from some of the other American midfield options.
The Title Race
The leading trio
No runaway favorite
Inter: Still the Team to Beat
Inter has changed enough that this is not simply a rerun of last season.
Several veteran pieces have departed, including goalkeeper Yann Sommer, while John Stones, Manuel Akanji and Djed Spence have arrived to refresh the defense. The more important continuity is farther forward, where Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram remain the center of an attack that already knows how it wants to play.
Manager Cristian Chivu does not need to invent a championship team. He needs to manage the transition from an experienced core without losing the coordination that has made Inter so difficult to break down.
That is enough to make them the favorite, but -110 is hardly the price of an unbeatable team.
Juventus and Napoli: The Closest Challengers
Juventus has a compelling case because Spalletti gives them a coach capable of improving how they control possession rather than simply adding more talent to the roster. Randal Kolo Muani gives them another dangerous option in the attack, and there should be enough quality throughout the squad to improve on last season. Spalletti will hope he can work the same magic at Juventus that he did a few seasons ago when leading Napoli to the title.
The question is whether Juventus can turn possession into consistent chance creation. They have spent several years looking like a collection of talented players without always looking like an elite attacking team.
Napoli has gone in a different direction with Massimiliano Allegri. Romelu Lukaku is gone, with Rasmus Højlund among the players expected to take on a larger role in the attack. Allegri will probably make them organized and difficult to play through. Whether that is enough to keep pace with Inter across 38 games will depend on how quickly the new attack settles.
AC Milan: Another Reset
Milan may have the most variance among the main contenders.
Amorim arrives with a clear preference for three center backs, aggressive wingbacks and two attacking players operating behind the striker. Milan has added Gonçalo Ramos up front and Mario Gila in defense, giving the new coach pieces that make sense for that structure.
If Pulisic returns healthy and Ramos gives them a consistent penalty-box presence, there is enough attacking talent to threaten anyone. The issue is that Milan is once again changing coaches and tactical identities while Inter begins from a much more settled position.
Roma: The Other Serious Contender
Roma may not have quite the same top-end talent as Inter, Juventus, Napoli or Milan, but the betting market is right to separate them from the longer-shot contenders.
Gian Piero Gasperini is entering his second season, which gives Roma more continuity than several of the clubs above them. They finished last year strong, returned to the Champions League and have largely kept together the group that adapted to Gasperini’s aggressive man-oriented defending and fluid attacking structure.
The attack should again revolve around players such as Matías Soulé, Paulo Dybala and Donyell Malen, with Roma hoping younger players can take another step rather than relying on a major summer overhaul.
The obvious concern is depth. Roma is back in the Champions League, and Gasperini’s style demands a lot physically. Their first-choice group is good enough to compete with anyone in Serie A, but keeping that level across a league season while also playing meaningful European games will require more rotation than last year.
At around +900, Roma is still clearly an outsider. But they are close enough to the favorites that a title challenge would not be shocking. If Inter regresses during its defensive transition and the other traditional powers struggle with new coaches, Roma has enough continuity and quality to take advantage.
One More Team Worth Watching: Como
Como is no longer just the fun little promoted club with Cesc Fàbregas and wealthy owners.
They finished fourth last season and are preparing for Champions League soccer. They kept Nico Paz and continued strengthening the roster, including the addition of Trevoh Chalobah. At +2500, the market still views an actual championship as a major long shot, and reasonably so.
But another top-four finish would no longer qualify as some enormous surprise. The more interesting question is whether they can handle European matches without sacrificing the aggressive, possession-oriented approach that got them here.
Prediction
I’ll take Inter to repeat, but this should be the most competitive title race of the big five European leagues.
Juventus, Napoli and Milan all have credible routes to improvement, and Roma should remain close enough to punish any extended stumble. Inter simply begins with fewer things that need to go right.
Bundesliga
Last season made clear the stark divide at the top of the German league: there is Bayern and then there is everyone else.
They finished with 89 points, lost once in 34 Bundesliga games and scored an absurd 122 goals while posting a +86 goal difference. Borussia Dortmund finished second with 73 points, meaning the supposed title race ended with a 16-point gap.
The betting market does not expect much more suspense this year. Bayern is currently -750 to win the Bundesliga, followed by Dortmund at +1000, RB Leipzig at +1400, Bayer Leverkusen at +1600 and Stuttgart at +6500.
Americans to Watch
The Bundesliga remains one of the best leagues for monitoring the next generation of the USMNT.
Five Americans to watch
Bundesliga
Malik Tillman
Bayer Leverkusen · AttackerThe rebuild offers a larger creative role.
Noahkai Banks
Augsburg · Center backA teenage starter with enormous long-term upside.
Mathis Albert
Dortmund · WingerThe 17-year-old lottery ticket in Dortmund’s attack.
Joe Scally
Gladbach · FullbackReliability remains his strongest club argument.
Cole Campbell
Elversberg · WingerA move designed to turn potential into minutes.
Malik Tillman · Bayer Leverkusen
Tillman is the most established American attacking player in Germany and now enters an important season after six goals and an assist in 29 Bundesliga appearances last year. He will look to build off his outstanding World Cup performance.
Leverkusen had a disappointing sixth-place finish and changed coaches again, so Tillman has an opportunity to become a larger part of the rebuild rather than merely another attacker in the rotation.
The US already knows what he can provide near the penalty area. The next step is becoming more consistently influential when the game is being played farther from goal.
Noahkai Banks · Augsburg
Banks may be the American defender with the most interesting long-term upside in Europe.
He already logged more than 1,700 Bundesliga minutes as a teenager last season and has demonstrated the mobility to defend away from his own box along with the confidence to step forward and progress the ball. The question still lingers whether he will ultimately choose to represent the US or Germany, but this season will be key for his development either way.
A full season as a Bundesliga starter would put him on a very direct path toward challenging for a major USMNT role during this cycle.
Mathis Albert · Borussia Dortmund
Albert is the lottery ticket.
He became the youngest American ever to appear in the Bundesliga last season and has continued earning attention around Dortmund’s first team during preseason. He is still only 17, so expecting a major role immediately would be ridiculous. But the combination of acceleration, one-on-one ability and Dortmund’s willingness to play young attackers makes him worth tracking closely.
Joe Scally · Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scally is one of the most reliable USMNT-eligible players in Europe. He consistently earns minutes for Gladbach and should again be a regular as they hope to rebound from a disappointing season a year ago.
Cole Campbell · Elversberg
Campbell has moved from Dortmund to newly promoted Elversberg in search of the consistent senior minutes he could not find at BVB. For Campbell in particular, simply playing every week may be more valuable than remaining attached to the bigger club.
The Title Race
The gap to close
Bayern against the field
Bayern Munich: Is There Actually a Vulnerability?
You can usually identify at least one theoretical reason Bayern might slip.
This year it takes some work.
Vincent Kompany’s team was historically productive last season and still has Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise leading an attack that overwhelmed almost everyone domestically. Bayern has supplemented the roster rather than rebuilding it, including additions such as Ismael Saibari and Nathaniel Brown.
The biggest threat may be physical rather than tactical. Bayern will again be competing deep into multiple competitions, several players had shortened summers because of the World Cup and injuries can change any race.
But if everyone is reasonably healthy, the rest of Germany is hoping Bayern regresses rather than presenting an obvious way to force it.
Dortmund: The Only Plausible Challenger
Dortmund finished second and remains the obvious alternative, but 16 points is an enormous amount of ground to make up.
Niko Kovač has a younger team after the departures of Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi, with Konstantinos Karetsas among the more exciting additions. There is enough speed and technical quality to create a dangerous attack, but there is also more uncertainty than Bayern has at basically every level of the field.
RB Leipzig finished third but changed coaches and lost Yan Diomande, their most important attacking player. Leverkusen finished only sixth and is also beginning under a new coach.
They are interesting teams. Neither begins the season looking like a team capable of chasing down a 122-goal machine.
Prediction
Bayern Munich, comfortably.
The -750 price looks almost comical for a major European league, but it accurately describes the gap. Dortmund should be better positioned than anyone else to apply pressure if Bayern slips, but the defending champions would need to decline significantly for this to become a real race.
Ligue 1
There is a similar imbalance in France, where Paris Saint-Germain enters off back-to-back Champions League titles as a heavy favorite.
PSG enters the season at roughly -650 to win Ligue 1 again, with Marseille at +1000, Monaco +1600 and Lens +1800. PSG is chasing a sixth consecutive French championship.
At this point the more interesting preseason question is probably not “Who wins Ligue 1?” but “Can anyone stay close enough to make PSG care about the league in April?”
Americans to Watch
France may have the most interesting group of Americans in Europe this season.
Five Americans to watch
Ligue 1
Folarin Balogun
Monaco · StrikerNineteen goals — and a transfer market watching.
Tim Weah
Marseille · Right sideAnother season testing his defensive evolution.
Gio Reyna
Strasbourg · AttackerA clean chance to trade theory for availability.
Tanner Tessmann
Lyon · MidfielderDependable is established; influential is next.
Bryan Reynolds
Rennes · Right backA major-league return that must produce minutes.
Folarin Balogun · Monaco
Balogun enters the year after his best Monaco season, scoring 19 times in 45 appearances across all competitions.
That production has created a complication: he may not remain in France much longer.
Tottenham has been pushing for a deal reportedly worth around €60 million, with other clubs also interested. As of this week Balogun is still training normally with Monaco, so he belongs in this preview, but his situation is worth monitoring through the end of the transfer window.
If he stays, he should remain one of the league’s better strikers and one of Monaco’s main reasons for believing it can challenge for a Champions League place.
Tim Weah · Marseille
Weah made 29 Ligue 1 appearances and played more than 2,200 minutes last season, with much of that work coming at right back or wingback rather than in the advanced winger role he played earlier in his career. That versatility has probably become his defining club trait.
For the USMNT, the question is whether playing deeper helps refine him as a right-sided defender or simply moves him farther away from the qualities that once made him an attacking threat. Either way, starting regularly for one of France’s biggest clubs is a pretty useful baseline.
Gio Reyna · Strasbourg
Reyna desperately needed a change, and he finally got another one.
After another injury-disrupted year at Borussia Mönchengladbach produced only one goal and one assist in 20 competitive appearances, Reyna signed a five-year contract with Strasbourg earlier this month.
There is no longer much point discussing his theoretical talent. Everyone has seen it.
The challenge is to start 25 or 30 league games, stay healthy and become a player his club builds attacks around rather than an interesting substitute who occasionally produces a brilliant moment. Strasbourg should give him a much cleaner opportunity to do that than he had at Dortmund or Gladbach.
Tanner Tessmann · Lyon
Tessmann enters another season at Lyon after playing nearly 2,000 Ligue 1 minutes last year and establishing himself as a dependable option in central midfield. His size, passing range and ability to operate as either a deeper midfielder or more traditional eight give him a useful profile, although he still needs to become more consistently influential rather than simply tidy in possession.
After being perhaps the biggest snub from the World Cup roster, this is an important season because the midfield hierarchy remains unsettled behind the most established names. If Tessmann can become a clear starter for Lyon and show more ability to progress the ball under pressure, he has a realistic chance to work his way back toward a significant national-team role.
Bryan Reynolds · Rennes
Reynolds earned another shot in a major European league after several productive seasons with Westerlo in Belgium. Rennes gives him a chance to compete for meaningful minutes at right back, but with the USMNT position already crowded, he will need to establish himself as a regular rather than simply make the move.
The Title Race
The competitive baseline
Can anyone make PSG care in April?
PSG: Even Better Than the Domestic Competition Requires
Luis Enrique has reached the point where PSG is not really being judged against Ligue 1 anymore.
Winning France is the expectation. The Champions League has become the measuring stick, and after winning that competition twice in a row, even that standard has changed.
The squad still includes Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and PSG has added Ferran Torres from Barcelona while Gonçalo Ramos moved to AC Milan. There is enough attacking variety to rotate heavily without fundamentally changing how the team plays.
They press aggressively, dominate territory and have so many players comfortable receiving in tight areas that most Ligue 1 opponents spend long stretches simply trying to escape their own half.
There are ways for PSG to lose individual games. There is not an obvious reason for them to lose the league.
The Race Behind Them
Marseille is the shortest-priced challenger at +1000, which says more about PSG than it does about Marseille.
They have changed coaches again, this time bringing in Bruno Génésio, and possess enough attacking talent to make a run at second place. But closing the gap with PSG would require both a major Marseille improvement and a surprisingly ordinary season in Paris.
Monaco has Balogun for now, but his possible departure adds uncertainty to a team already priced well behind PSG.
Lens may be the most fascinating case. They finished second and won the Coupe de France last season, then immediately lost coach Pierre Sage to Crystal Palace. Dino Toppmöller now takes over a team that has proven it can compete near the top but has to demonstrate that last season was about the structure of the club rather than one exceptional coaching job.
That probably leaves Marseille, Monaco, Lens, Lyon and Lille fighting for European places while PSG operates in a different competitive universe.
Prediction
There is no compelling reason to pick against Paris Saint-Germain.
The better competition may be for second place, where Marseille has enough talent to emerge but Lens, Monaco and Lyon all have plausible cases.
PSG winning Ligue 1 has become boring as a prediction. Until somebody provides evidence that it is wrong, boring is still better than pretending there is a title race that does not really exist.
Of these three leagues, Serie A should provide the most compelling championship race, the Bundesliga has the most intriguing group of young Americans and Ligue 1 may have the deepest group of established USMNT players.
As for the champions: Inter, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain.