NFL Season Predictions

I’m a little late to this, but there have only been two games. So here are my belated full season predictions.

Before the rest of Week 1 begins, here is my final playoff projection: seven teams from each conference, complete records, every playoff game and a Super Bowl winner.

The larger theme remains playoff turnover. I have six teams falling out from last season’s field and six replacing them.

In the AFC, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Denver are out. Baltimore, Cincinnati and Kansas City are back.

In the NFC, Carolina, Chicago and Green Bay are out. Detroit, Dallas and Tampa Bay replace them.

Some of those are safer than others. The fun starts around the edges.

AFC

1. Ravens, 12-5

Predicting the Ravens to go from 8-9 and out of the playoffs to the No. 1 seed sounds aggressive until you think about why last season went wrong.

Lamar Jackson was never fully healthy after his early hamstring injury. Nnamdi Madubuike essentially lost his season in September. The interior offensive line struggled. The defense never consistently matched its talent.

The Ravens spent the offseason attacking those problems rather than tearing apart a roster that still has championship-level talent. They brought in Jesse Minter to replace John Harbaugh and he gets Kyle Hamilton, Roquan Smith, Nate Wiggins, a returning Madubuike and now Trey Hendrickson. He should be able to create pressure without constantly exposing the secondary to manufacture it.

The offensive questions are more substantial as the Ravens replaced the entire interior offensive line, including Tyler Linderbaum, and Declan Doyle will call regular-season NFL plays for the first time. Doyle has plenty of interesting ideas involving motion, heavier personnel, under-center play action and more defined answers for Lamar when the original structure breaks down. None of those guarantee he can manage third-and-8 in Cincinnati after the opening script has stopped working.

That is why I am stopping at 12 wins rather than projecting some regular-season rampage.

The Ravens have one of the league’s highest ceilings. Their largest uncertainties are concentrated in areas that can derail even an excellent roster.

For 17 games, I still like the talent enough to give them the AFC’s top seed.

2. Bills, 11-6

Buffalo remains the Ravens’ biggest competition for the conference.

There is not much cleverness required here. As long as Josh Allen is healthy, the Bills have one of the league’s highest offensive floors and a quarterback capable of fixing problems that would sink lesser teams.

The Bills also have a new coaching staff with Joe Brady taking the reins from Sean McDermott.

I have the Ravens finishing one game ahead over the full season, due partially to a slightly easier schedule.

3. Chargers, 11-6

I have the Chargers winning the AFC West.

Replacing Greg Roman with Mike McDaniel is fascinating because Justin Herbert has spent too much of his career being discussed as an elite quarterback without consistently being placed in an offense that maximizes everything he does well.

McDaniel should bring more movement, spacing and ways to manufacture easier throws without turning Herbert into a checkdown machine.

There is more uncertainty defensively after Minter left for Baltimore, but new coordinator Chris O’Leary has direct experience in that system and appears more likely to evolve it than replace it.

Kansas City remains Kansas City. Picking against Patrick Mahomes in the AFC West has generally been a wonderful way to look stupid by Christmas.

I am doing it anyway.

Chargers 11-6. Division champions.

4. Texans, 10-7

Houston is the division winner I trust the least.

The Texans benefited from a dominant defense and a massive turnover advantage last season, two areas that can be difficult to reproduce at exactly the same level.

But Jacksonville is one of my primary regression candidates, while Indianapolis and Tennessee still have more fundamental questions.

Houston does not have to dominate the AFC South.

Ten wins should do it.

5. Bengals, 10-7

Cincinnati is my strongest AFC rebound candidate outside Baltimore.

The Bengals do not need to suddenly field an elite defense. They simply need the defense to stop destroying games that Joe Burrow and the offense have already put them in position to win.

That is a much lower bar.

If the defense becomes merely competent, Cincinnati should return to January.

6. Chiefs, 10-7

A 10-win Kansas City team somehow feels both disrespectful and completely reasonable.

The Chiefs went 6-11 last season despite actually outscoring their opponents. That is the profile of a team far more likely to rebound than repeat the same record.

They still have Mahomes. They still have Andy Reid. They remain dangerous enough that nobody is going to enjoy seeing them on Wild Card weekend.

I just think the Chargers are better positioned to win the division over 17 games.

There is a difference between predicting the end of Kansas City’s run and predicting one season in which it finishes second.

This is the latter.

7. Patriots, 10-7

New England grabs the final spot in a congested AFC.

Ten wins probably leaves multiple teams sweating through the final Sunday, and I would not be surprised if Denver or Indianapolis stays involved much longer than this projection suggests.

The Patriots get my last spot.

NFC

1. Lions, 13-4

Detroit may be the easiest rebound prediction on the board.

The Lions finished only 9-8 last season, but almost everything underneath that record suggested a much better football team. They finished third in DVOA with a +68 point differential.

That is not normally the profile of a mediocre team. It is the profile of a good team that happened to produce a mediocre record.

Those teams are exactly the ones worth betting on to rebound.

I have Detroit going all the way to 13-4 and earning home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

2. Rams, 12-5

The Rams remain one of the safest bets in the NFC because there are very few obvious weaknesses on the roster.

They have the quarterback, the coaching, enough offensive skill talent and a defense capable of keeping them from needing Matthew Stafford to solve every problem himself. More importantly, they have already shown they can translate that balance into high-level performance rather than relying on one dominant unit to carry the rest of the team.

The NFC West makes the path more difficult. Seattle should be good again, and San Francisco has enough talent to make the division uncomfortable even if everything does not break perfectly for the 49ers.

I have Los Angeles winning the division at 12-5 and entering January as Detroit’s biggest threat to reach the Super Bowl.

3. Cowboys, 11-6

Dallas is one of my favorite rebound candidates because they already had some strong pieces in place last season.

The Cowboys already had a top-eight offense last season. Their defense was the problem.

If that unit can merely become average rather than remaining one of the league’s worst, Dallas has enough offense to turn close losses into wins and get back into the postseason.

I am going one step further and giving them the NFC East over Philadelphia.

Not because I expect the Eagles to collapse.

I just think Dallas has more room to improve.

4. Buccaneers, 10-7

The Tampa prediction is partly about the Buccaneers and partly about the division they play in.

Carolina made the playoffs last season, but I have the Panthers as one of the NFC teams most likely to fall out.

That leaves a very winnable NFC South.

Tampa does not need to become a Super Bowl contender to reach 10 wins and host a playoff game.

5. Seahawks, 11-6

Seattle gets punished by the bracket for playing in the same division as the Rams, but I still have the Seahawks winning 11 games. They also may have lost Sam Darnold for some time after the week one win over New England.

They could easily win the division, but I’m pricing in some regression and “disease of more” Super Bowl hangover.

That still makes them a particularly dangerous No. 5 seed.

6. 49ers, 10-7

San Francisco is one of the harder teams in the NFC to project because the ceiling remains much higher than a typical No. 6 seed.

There is still enough high-end talent on both sides of the ball to make the 49ers dangerous, particularly if their key veterans stay healthy and the offense avoids the stretches of inconsistency that have made recent seasons more volatile than expected.

The bigger issue is the division.

The Rams are one of the most complete teams in the conference, and Seattle should also be firmly in the playoff race. That leaves San Francisco with less margin for error than teams competing in weaker divisions, even if the roster itself is good enough to win considerably more than 10 games in the right circumstances.

Health will again determine much of the range. San Francisco has enough star power to beat anyone, but the roster becomes much less intimidating when injuries start exposing the depth behind those stars.

I still trust the talent and coaching enough to put the 49ers back in the playoffs.

I just trust the Rams and Seattle a little more over 17 games.

7. Eagles, 10-7

Philadelphia is not one of my collapse picks.

A 10-7 record is hardly a disaster.

The difference is that I have Dallas improving enough to take the division and enough depth elsewhere in the NFC to push Philadelphia all the way down to the final wild-card spot.

That creates an unpleasant first-round matchup for somebody.

In this case, Los Angeles.

Wild Card Weekend

AFC

(2) Bills over (7) Patriots

New England’s return to the playoffs ends against a substantially more complete Buffalo team. The Bills should be able to force New England into a game where quarterback play decides the outcome.

That is not the matchup the Patriots want.

(6) Chiefs over (3) Chargers

The Chargers win the AFC West.

Then Patrick Mahomes shows up in January.

Los Angeles’ 11-6 season would still represent a meaningful step forward, particularly if Mike McDaniel builds the kind of offense around Justin Herbert that this projection assumes. But drawing Kansas City as the No. 6 seed would be about as unpleasant a reward as a division champion could receive.

The Chiefs may no longer be the conference’s best team over 17 games. That does not mean I am ready to trust the Chargers over Mahomes and Andy Reid in a one-game playoff.

Kansas City has spent too many years showing how much regular-season flaws can matter less once Reid has a full week to attack one opponent and Mahomes starts solving the problems the play design cannot.

The Chargers win the division.

The Chiefs win the rematch that matters more.

Kansas City advances.

(5) Bengals over (4) Texans

This is the classic wild-card matchup where I trust the road team’s quarterback more than the home team’s defense.

Houston can absolutely win this game by generating pressure and shortening possessions.

I still take Burrow.

NFC

(2) Rams over (7) Eagles

The Eagles are good enough to make this uncomfortable, but Los Angeles gets the rematch opportunity after a disappointing start to the season and advances.

(3) Cowboys over (6) 49ers

Apparently we needed another Cowboys-49ers playoff game.

This time Dallas gets it done.

The Cowboys’ offensive advantage is enough in a close game and sends them into the divisional round.

(5) Seahawks over (4) Buccaneers

This is why seeding can be misleading.

Tampa gets the home game for winning its division. Seattle is the better team.

Seahawks advance.

Divisional Round

(1) Ravens over (6) Chiefs

Of course the reward for the AFC’s best regular season is Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City would be far more dangerous than the No. 6 seed suggests, but this is also where Baltimore’s roster advantage should finally matter.

The Ravens should have more ways to pressure Mahomes without selling out, particularly with Trey Hendrickson and a healthy Nnamdi Madubuike allowing Minter to create favorable matchups rather than manufacturing the entire pass rush through blitzes.

The other side is the concern.

Kansas City is exactly the kind of opponent capable of testing Baltimore’s rebuilt interior line and forcing Declan Doyle to keep finding answers once the first plan has been diagnosed. The Ravens cannot spend the afternoon relying on Lamar to escape pressure and turn broken plays into offense.

But home field and the week off matter, and Baltimore enters with the deeper roster.

The Chiefs make this considerably more stressful than a No. 1 versus No. 6 matchup ought to be.

The Ravens survive.

(2) Bills over (5) Bengals

This has the potential to become the best game of the divisional round.

Cincinnati has already justified the rebound prediction by getting this far, and Burrow gives the Bengals a realistic chance in any game that becomes a possession-by-possession shootout.

Buffalo simply has fewer weaknesses.

Allen can attack the Bengals through structure when the matchup is available and create offense himself when it is not. Cincinnati’s defense may improve enough to get back into the playoffs without improving enough to survive that challenge for four quarters.

The Bills advance and set up the AFC Championship Game this projection has been pointing toward from the beginning.

(1) Lions over (5) Seahawks

Seattle can make this physical and competitive, but Detroit’s underlying quality finally matches its record this season.

The Lions reach the NFC Championship Game.

(2) Rams over (3) Cowboys

Dallas’ rebound season ends here.

The Cowboys have enough offense to threaten Los Angeles, but this is where I trust the Rams’ overall roster and coaching more than the improvement case that got Dallas to 11 wins.

The Rams survive and get another shot at Detroit.

AFC Championship: Bills over Ravens

This is where the optimism ends.

The Ravens earn the No. 1 seed. They win 12 games. Minter improves the defense. Lamar remains in the MVP conversation. Doyle proves capable enough in his first year running the offense.

And Buffalo beats them in Baltimore.

The reason comes back to the same questions that have followed the Ravens throughout the offseason.

Can the rebuilt interior offensive line hold up when an opponent can spend an entire week designing pressure specifically for it?

Can Doyle manage a playoff game once the defense has taken away the first answer?

Can the Ravens remain efficient when the game gets pushed into obvious passing situations and Lamar has to win repeatedly from the pocket?

None of those concerns mean Baltimore cannot win the Super Bowl. If the line turns into a strength and Doyle immediately proves to be an excellent game manager, I may feel very differently by January.

In September, those are simply larger questions than I want attached to my Super Bowl pick.

Buffalo does not need to be better than Baltimore for four months.

It only needs to be better for one afternoon.

Bills advance to the Super Bowl.

NFC Championship: Lions over Rams

The Rams recover from their ugly opener, win 12 games and make another deep playoff run.

Detroit is better.

The Lions were already much stronger underneath last season’s 9-8 record than the standings suggested. This year the results catch up to the performance.

Home field matters. So does avoiding the early deficit and chaos that sank too many of their games last year.

Detroit reaches the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl LXI: Lions over Bills

Detroit Lions 30, Buffalo Bills 27

There are easier Super Bowl picks than the Detroit Lions.

This is a prediction based on the belief that Detroit was significantly better than its record last season, remains capable of fielding one of the league’s best offenses and has enough elsewhere on the roster that a reasonable amount of regression toward its underlying performance produces one of the best teams in football.

Buffalo finally gets through the AFC.

Then Detroit ruins the ending.

My final four are Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit and Los Angeles.

The Bills beat the Ravens.

The Lions beat the Rams.

And Detroit finishes the job.

Super Bowl LXI champion: Detroit Lions.