Every season it is easy to sit down to make predictions and just pencil in most of the same teams into the playoffs. The reality is, since 2002 when the multiple-wild-card format was introduced, roughly 50 percent of the playoff field turns over on average every year. That has remained consistent even with the additional playoff teams added starting in 2020.
In order to figure out which teams will be back and which teams will drop, we need to ask which parts of a team’s previous season are actually likely to repeat. Passing efficiency tends to carry over better than defensive dominance. Point differential tells us more than raw record. Extreme turnover margins and one-score records deserve skepticism. Schedule strength has to account for who opponents are expected to be now, not what their records were a year ago.
Division strength also has to come into consideration. Since each division winner makes the playoffs, we often end up with a weaker team getting in ahead of more deserving teams simply because they had a poor division.
Using that framework, these are the three 2025 playoff teams in each conference most likely to fall out, and the three most likely replacements.
AFC: Three Teams Most Likely to Fall Out
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is the easiest call in the conference because almost every underlying indicator was less impressive than the 10-7 record.
The Steelers finished 2025 with a point differential of only plus-10. Their offense ranked 16th in DVOA and 14th in EPA per play, while the defense was good without being dominant enough to drag the rest of the team into contender territory.
That is much closer to a .500 profile than a comfortable playoff team.
The larger concern is what comes next.
Mike Tomlin is gone after nearly two decades of continuity. Mike McCarthy is taking over. Aaron Rodgers is entering his age-42 season. ESPN’s August projections rank Pittsburgh’s overall roster 18th and its offense 27th, with the defense still carrying most of the weight.
That is not a particularly stable way to win.
A great defense can cover a lot of problems in one season, but defensive performance tends to fluctuate more than offense from year to year. Pittsburgh does not have the kind of passing-game foundation that makes another 10-win season feel like the default.
The schedule is manageable, but the division should be much less forgiving. The Ravens are positioned for a significant rebound, and Cincinnati has Joe Burrow back with a rebuilt defense.
Pittsburgh does not need to crater to miss the playoffs.
Going from 10-7 to 8-9 would probably be enough.
Dropout confidence: High
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville requires a more careful argument because the Jaguars were genuinely good last season.
They went 13-4, outscored opponents by 138 points and finished sixth in total DVOA. Their weighted DVOA improved to third, meaning this was not merely a team piling up early wins before fading.
So no, Jacksonville was not fraudulent.
The question is whether the particular formula that produced 13 wins is likely to repeat.
The Jaguars ranked only 14th in offensive DVOA and 12th in offensive EPA. Their largest advantage came on defense, where they finished third in EPA per play, and in turnover margin, where they finished plus-13.
Both rankings could be in for some regression.
Elite defense absolutely matters, but defense historically carries over less reliably than offense. Turnover margin is even less stable, particularly when a team reaches the extremes Jacksonville did.
The roster has also lost useful contributors such as Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd.
The Jaguars will also face a much tougher schedule than last year, going from the sixth easiest in 2025 to the 18th easiest this season, along with some unfavorable travel quirks. The most revealing signal may be how aggressively current projections have already discounted last season. Both Sharp Football Analysis and Mike Clay’s ESPN model land Jacksonville around 8.5 wins. Clay ranks the Jaguars only 20th overall.
That is an enormous gap from 13-4.
Jacksonville can still be a respectable team. It can even remain in the AFC South race.
But it does not have to become a total bottom-feeder to fall out of the postseason. It only has to stop getting elite defensive results and a large turnover advantage while the offense remains merely decent.
Dropout confidence: Medium-high
3. Denver Broncos
Denver is the hardest AFC selection because the Broncos should still be good.
They ranked seventh in DVOA last season, 10th in offensive EPA and seventh in defensive EPA. They added Jaylen Waddle. Their projected schedule is easier than Houston’s, and ESPN projects them for 10.9 wins.
None of that screams collapse.
The problem is that Denver went 14-3 while winning an NFL-high 11 one-score games.
That is not a sustainable standard.
Close-game performance contains some real quarterback and coaching value, but teams that live at the extreme almost always move back toward the middle. A tipped pass, missed kick or fourth-down failure changes three or four of those games very quickly.
Denver’s case is cleaner than Chicago’s because the Broncos did not also benefit from turnover luck. They actually finished minus-3 in turnover differential.
So this is not a prediction that Denver suddenly becomes mediocre.
It is a prediction that 14-3 becomes something closer to 10-7 or 9-8.
The other factor is conference structure.
Kansas City is one of the strongest rebound candidates in football, and the Chargers already made the playoffs last year. If the Chiefs return to anything resembling their underlying 2025 quality, the AFC West could have three legitimate playoff teams fighting over a limited number of spots.
Houston actually has the shakier pure regression profile. Its offense ranked 23rd in EPA, its defense ranked first and its turnover differential was plus-17.
But if Jacksonville falls in the AFC South, that automatically creates a cleaner division path for Houston.
Dropout confidence: Medium
AFC: Three Teams Most Likely to Return
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have the cleanest rebound case in the league.
They went 8-9 last season, but their underlying profile was better than the record. They finished with a plus-26 point differential, ranked 14th in total DVOA and improved to 11th in weighted DVOA despite playing much of the season with a compromised Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens do not need to become a completely different team. They need a healthy Lamar. Jackson missed three games and played through hamstring, knee, ankle, toe and back issues. The offense started the season strong and looked like it would exceed expectations until Lamar’s first injury.
From there it never fully recovered. The Ravens offense dropped from first in the NFL in 2024 to 16th last season as quarterback health and interior-line problems piled up. The 2026 roster has been tweaked to address some of last year’s issues in addition to a revamp of the entire coaching staff.
Jesse Minter helms the defense alongside Anthony Weaver and they now have Trey Hendrickson to provide the kind of edge rusher the Ravens have lacked. The Ravens also enter the season with one of the easiest projected schedules in football. Mike Clay ranks them second overall and projects 11.5 wins.
There are legitimate questions. The entire interior offensive line has been rebuilt, and Declan Doyle is a first-time NFL play caller. But the Ravens do not need turnover luck or a defensive miracle to jump three or four wins.
They need the most valuable player on the roster to resemble himself again while a talented team performs closer to its underlying 2025 level.
That is a much easier bet.
Newcomer confidence: Very high
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati’s rebound case is less tidy because the Bengals actually played like a bad team for long stretches.
They went 6-11 and were outscored by 78 points, but the important part is where the damage occurred. Cincinnati still ranked 13th in offensive DVOA despite major quarterback disruption. The defense ranked 30th in DVOA and 29th in EPA per play. That is a concentrated weakness rather than an entire roster failing at once.
The Bengals spent the offseason attacking it.
Dexter Lawrence II, Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen and Bryan Cook headline a defensive overhaul, while Joe Burrow returns healthy. Nobody should assume Cincinnati suddenly has an elite defense, but it may not need one.
Clay still ranks the defense only 25th while projecting Cincinnati for 10.7 wins because the offense grades third. If Burrow restores the offense to elite territory and the defense improves from catastrophic to merely below average, Cincinnati can swing several games without requiring anything improbable.
The projected schedule helps even more. Sharp ranks it the second easiest in football.
There is real volatility here. The defensive changes may not work quickly enough, and Burrow’s recent injury history cannot simply be ignored.
But the path is obvious.
Newcomer confidence: High
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is the strongest example of a record telling a much uglier story than the underlying performance.
The Chiefs went 6-11 and outscored their opponents by 34 points.
Those two facts do not comfortably coexist. Kansas City ranked 15th in DVOA, 12th in offensive DVOA, 11th in offensive EPA and 12th in defensive EPA. FTN’s Pythagorean estimate put the Chiefs around a .559 winning percentage, roughly equivalent to a nine- or 10-win team.
Instead they won six.
That does not mean Kansas City is automatically returning to its previous dynasty-level standard. The roster is no longer obviously superior to the rest of the AFC, and the schedule is not especially favorable. But projecting another six-win season would require believing the record contains more signal than the scoring margin and efficiency profile.
Patrick Mahomes is still the quarterback, the team remained respectable on both sides of the ball and even a modest correction should push Kansas City back toward the wild-card race.
The Chiefs do not have to become the 2022 Chiefs again.
They just have to stop losing like a six-win team while playing like a nine-win one.
Newcomer confidence: High
NFC: Three Teams Most Likely to Fall Out
1. Carolina Panthers
Carolina is the clearest dropout candidate in either conference.
The Panthers won the NFC South at 8-9 despite being outscored by 69 points.
They ranked 25th in total DVOA, 25th on offense and 22nd on defense. Their EPA rankings were similarly unimpressive. There is no hidden elite unit carrying the projection.
That makes Carolina fundamentally different from teams such as Chicago or Green Bay. Those teams have specific strengths worth trusting. The Panthers mostly benefited from winning a division with an extraordinarily low threshold. They may improve this season and still fail to repeat.
The schedule does them no favors either. Sharp ranks Carolina’s slate the third hardest in football, while Clay projects only 6.3 wins and ranks the roster 26th. That does not mean the Panthers cannot become a better team.
It means they probably need to become substantially better just to reproduce an 8-9 division title.
Dropout confidence: Very high
2. Chicago Bears
Chicago is the purest regression candidate on the board.
The Bears went 11-6, and their offense was legitimately good. They ranked ninth in offensive DVOA and seventh in offensive EPA. Though the improvement was spurred by the arrival of offensive guru Ben Johnson, much of their success warrants some skepticism, especially on the other side of the ball.
Chicago finished plus-22 in turnover differential, the best mark in the NFL. A league-high 18.2 percent of opposing drives ended with a Bears takeaway. On drives that did not end in turnovers, Chicago ranked 27th in points allowed per possession.
That is quite a difference.
The Bears also produced six comeback wins in the final two minutes. Some teams repeatedly execute well late. Nobody should pretend every one-score game is decided by a random-number generator. But when you combine a massive turnover margin, a mediocre defense and an extraordinary run of late-game victories, the regression alarm bells start sounding.
The schedule gets tougher too. Sharp ranks Chicago’s 2026 slate seventh hardest.
The Bears can improve as a normal defense and keep a good offense yet still drop from 11 victories to nine.
In fact, that may be the most likely outcome.
Dropout confidence: High
3. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is the least comfortable selection among the NFC fallers.
The Packers have the one thing that is generally trustworthy year to year, a good offense. They ranked sixth in offensive DVOA and fourth in offensive EPA last season. But they just edge San Francisco on this list because the 49ers finished second in offensive DVOA.
Aside from the offense, there are some warning signs for Green Bay. The Packers went 9-7-1 with only a plus-31 point differential. The defense ranked 19th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA. Their projected schedule has become considerably more difficult, with Sharp now ranking it 24th. Micah Parsons’ recovery from ACL and meniscus injuries also creates uncertainty near the start of the season.
This is not a prediction that Green Bay falls apart.
Clay still ranks the Packers 13th overall and projects 9.5 wins.
It is a bubble-team argument.
In a conference with Detroit positioned to rebound and Dallas possessing a strong offensive foundation, Green Bay has less room for defensive mediocrity and early-season injury complications.
Nine or 10 wins should keep the Packers squarely in contention.
It may not guarantee they get one of the seven spots.
Dropout confidence: Medium
NFC: Three Teams Most Likely to Return
1. Detroit Lions
Detroit is the easiest newcomer pick in the NFC.
The Lions missed the playoffs at 9-8 despite finishing third in total DVOA.
They ranked seventh in offensive DVOA, ninth on defense and outscored opponents by 68 points. FTN noted that their 21.4 percent DVOA was one of the best marks ever produced by a team that failed to reach the postseason.
There is no elaborate rebound story required. They already played like a playoff team last year and now get the easiest projected schedule in football according to both Sharp and Clay. Clay ranks the Lions fourth overall and projects 12 wins.
Teams with strong point differential, top-five overall efficiency, a good offense and favorable future schedule are exactly the teams we should expect to bounce back.
It would be more surprising to see the Lions miss the playoffs a second consecutive season than to see them bounce back with a strong season.
Newcomer confidence: Very high
2. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is a bet on one side of the roster staying good while the other stops being historically awful.
The Cowboys ranked eighth in offensive DVOA and fifth in offensive EPA last season. Their defense finished 32nd in both DVOA and EPA. The useful part for projection is that Dallas does not need the defense to become good. It simply needs the defense to stop being among the worst in football.
If the offense remains around the top eight and the defense climbs into the low 20s, that alone could swing several games. Current projections are even more optimistic. Clay ranks Dallas ninth overall, fifth on offense and 16th on defense while projecting 10.1 wins.
That defensive projection may prove ambitious, and the schedule is a real obstacle, as Sharp ranks it the fifth hardest. However, their baseline performance on offense gives the Cowboys a much better starting point than asking a great defense to drag a broken offense back into contention.
Newcomer confidence: Medium-high
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is the least compelling statistical newcomer and perhaps the best reminder that playoff forecasting is not the same exercise as ranking teams one through 32.
The Buccaneers went 8-9 last season with a minus-31 point differential. They ranked 20th in total DVOA, 18th on offense and 18th on defense.
Nothing there screams hidden contender, but because of their division, Tampa has a clear route back to the playoffs.
If Carolina is the most likely NFC playoff team to fall out, somebody still has to win the NFC South. Tampa is the most plausible replacement. Clay projects the Buccaneers for nine wins and has them winning the division.
Could Minnesota be better on a neutral field? Absolutely.
Could another NFC wild-card candidate have a higher ceiling? Sure.
But an automatic division berth changes the equation. The Buccaneers do not need to become one of the NFC’s seven best teams by pure roster strength. They just need to be better than Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans.
Newcomer confidence: Medium
The Two Toughest Calls
The AFC decision between Denver and Houston is extremely close. Houston actually has the more concerning regression profile.
The Texans ranked 23rd in offensive EPA and 19th in offensive DVOA while finishing first in defensive EPA, second in defensive DVOA and plus-17 in turnover differential. That is a lot of value concentrated in the less stable areas of team performance.
Denver, by contrast, has the better offense, easier projected schedule and no positive turnover luck to surrender.
If I were ranking which team’s 2025 performance is most likely to regress, I would put Houston ahead of Denver, but that is not exactly the question here.
If Jacksonville drops in the AFC South, Houston’s path to the division title becomes easier. Kansas City’s expected rebound applies direct pressure to Denver in an AFC West that already sent the Chargers to the postseason.
The other difficult omission is Indianapolis. The Colts went only 8-9 last season but finished fifth in total DVOA, fifth in offensive DVOA, ninth in offensive EPA and plus-54 in point differential.
FTN called their 18.9 percent DVOA the best ever by a losing team in its database. That is an enormous rebound signal, but they have a weaker quarterback situation than the other contenders.
Baltimore, Cincinnati and Kansas City all offer clearer answers at the position that matters most. Indianapolis may have the underlying team-quality case to jump any of them, but projecting that leap requires more faith in the quarterback situation than I am willing to place ahead of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes.