Change a quarterback: Click a team name in a matchup to open its QB choices, or use the QB scenarios button. Choose a quarterback or check Use the first backup this week. Upcoming model spreads update automatically.
Week 6
This week’s spreads
Ratings through Week 5.
Home advantage: 1.6 points; international games are neutral.
A model spread is a projected scoring margin. Market lines are the nflverse schedule snapshot, and can differ by book or move after retrieval. Completed games show an actual-starter adjustment when the expected QB did not start, with the original saved forecast beneath it.
| Game / kickoff ET | Model spread | Market | Gap to market | Assumed quarterbacks | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA at DENOct 15 · 20:15 ET | SEA −0.9 | SEA −3.0 | 2.1 home pts | Sam Darnold / Bo Nix | Upcoming |
| HOU vs. JAXOct 18 · 09:30 ET | JAX −7.7 | JAX −3.0 | 4.7 home pts | C.J. Stroud / Trevor Lawrence | Upcoming |
| CHI at ATLOct 18 · 13:00 ET | CHI −1.0 | CHI −3.0 | 2.0 home pts | Caleb Williams / Michael Penix Jr. | Upcoming |
| BAL at CLEOct 18 · 13:00 ET | BAL −9.2 | BAL −4.5 | -4.7 home pts | Lamar Jackson / Deshaun Watson | Upcoming |
| TEN at INDOct 18 · 13:00 ET | IND −10.6 | IND −7.0 | 3.6 home pts | Cam Ward / Daniel Jones | Upcoming |
| NYJ at NEOct 18 · 13:00 ET | NE −6.5 | NE −7.0 | -0.5 home pts | Geno Smith / Drake Maye | Upcoming |
| NO at NYGOct 18 · 13:00 ET | NYG −2.6 | NO −1.5 | 4.1 home pts | Tyler Shough / Jameis Winston | Upcoming |
| CAR at PHIOct 18 · 13:00 ET | CAR −1.1 | PHI −1.5 | -2.6 home pts | Bryce Young / Jalen Hurts | Upcoming |
| PIT at TBOct 18 · 13:00 ET | TB −4.0 | PIT −3.0 | 7.0 home pts | Aaron Rodgers / Baker Mayfield | Upcoming |
| ARI at LAOct 18 · 16:05 ET | LA −11.3 | LA −12.5 | -1.2 home pts | Jacoby Brissett / Matthew Stafford | Upcoming |
| LAC at KCOct 18 · 16:25 ET | KC −9.1 | KC −8.5 | 0.6 home pts | Justin Herbert / Patrick Mahomes | Upcoming |
| BUF at LVOct 18 · 16:25 ET | BUF −8.8 | BUF −6.0 | -2.8 home pts | Josh Allen / Kirk Cousins | Upcoming |
| DAL at GBOct 18 · 20:20 ET | GB −3.6 | GB −1.5 | 2.1 home pts | Dak Prescott / Jordan Love | Upcoming |
| WAS at SFOct 19 · 20:15 ET | SF −13.4 | SF −7.5 | 5.9 home pts | Jayden Daniels / Brock Purdy | Upcoming |
Gap = model home margin minus market home margin. A positive gap favors the home team relative to the market. Weather, rest and non-QB injuries are currently outside the model.