Two distinct records. Saved forecasts were recorded before kickoff, initially as unpublished research. Earlier games are retrospective replays using only prior-week performance; the formula was selected later. When the expected QB did not start, the displayed spread uses the actual starter’s pregame QB estimate. The original forecast remains shown beneath it. Market comparisons use closing lines.
2026 game log
Forecast vs. final
| Week | Game | Final | Model spread | Actual margin | Error (pts) | Closing line | Forecast record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BAL at ATL | 30–23 | 3.8 home ptsQB adjusted · original -1.2 home pts | -7 home pts | 10.8 | 3.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | SF at SEA | 32–29 | -3.6 home pts | -3 home pts | 0.6 | 3.0 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | DET at ARI | 45–21 | -0.9 home pts | -24 home pts | 23.1 | -5.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | DEN at LAC | 23–17 | -3.3 home pts | -6 home pts | 2.7 | -3.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | NYG at WAS | 27–27 | 3.7 home pts | 0 home pts | 3.7 | 3.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | HOU at TEN | 26–3 | -4.0 home pts | -23 home pts | 19.0 | -6.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | IND at PIT | 22–34 | -1.8 home pts | 12 home pts | 13.8 | 3.0 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | CLE at NYJ | 12–17 | 1.3 home pts | 5 home pts | 3.7 | 2.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | MIN at NO | 23–13 | -2.0 home pts | -10 home pts | 8.0 | -2.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | LV at NE | 17–45 | 4.6 home pts | 28 home pts | 23.4 | 3.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | CIN at MIA | 31–24 | -9.1 home pts | -7 home pts | 2.1 | -7.0 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | CHI at GB | 7–31 | -2.8 home ptsQB adjusted · original -5.1 home pts | 24 home pts | 26.8 | -1.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | PHI at JAX | 17–19 | 9.3 home pts | 2 home pts | 7.3 | 7.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 5 | TB at DAL | 24–16 | 4.5 home ptsQB adjusted · original 1.9 home pts | -8 home pts | 12.5 | 9.5 home pts | Saved before kickoff |
| 4 | ATL at NO | 45–24 | -1.5 home pts | -21 home pts | 19.5 | 1.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | DET at CAR | 26–32 | -2.4 home pts | 6 home pts | 8.4 | -4.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | DEN at SF | 14–24 | 10.1 home pts | 10 home pts | 0.1 | 3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | LAC at SEA | 23–30 | 9.8 home pts | 7 home pts | 2.8 | 7.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | KC at LV | 30–27 | -2.7 home pts | -3 home pts | 0.3 | -4.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | MIA at MIN | 10–15 | 8.3 home pts | 5 home pts | 3.3 | 10.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | GB at TB | 17–14 | -0.1 home ptsQB adjusted · original 2.5 home pts | -3 home pts | 2.9 | -3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | LA at PHI | 24–20 | -6.2 home pts | -4 home pts | 2.2 | -3.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | ARI at NYG | 24–36 | -1.7 home pts | 12 home pts | 13.7 | -2.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | DAL at HOU | 34–30 | -1.4 home pts | -4 home pts | 2.6 | 3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | JAX at CIN | 22–17 | -0.3 home pts | -5 home pts | 4.7 | 2.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | NYJ at CHI | 12–23 | 3.9 home ptsQB adjusted · original 4.7 home pts | 11 home pts | 7.1 | 3.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | NE at BUF | 29–26 | 6.9 home pts | -3 home pts | 9.9 | 7.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | TEN at BAL | 18–24 | 13.8 home pts | 6 home pts | 7.8 | 11.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | IND at WAS | 30–13 | -0.9 home pts | -17 home pts | 16.1 | -4.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 4 | PIT at CLE | 24–27 | 0.3 home pts | 3 home pts | 2.7 | -2.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | PHI at CHI | 7–27 | 2.4 home ptsQB adjusted · original 6.1 home pts | 20 home pts | 17.6 | -3.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | LA at DEN | 26–30 | -5.0 home pts | 4 home pts | 9.0 | 1.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | LV at NO | 35–27 | 0.1 home pts | -8 home pts | 8.1 | 3.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | BAL at DAL | 34–31 | -5.7 home pts | -3 home pts | 2.7 | -3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | MIN at TB | 23–16 | -1.5 home ptsQB adjusted · original -0.8 home pts | -7 home pts | 5.5 | -1.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | ARI at SF | 30–36 | 13.3 home pts | 6 home pts | 7.3 | 7.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | SEA at WAS | 31–33 | -7.9 home ptsQB adjusted · original -4.2 home pts | 2 home pts | 9.9 | -8.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | CIN at PIT | 27–30 | -5.9 home pts | 3 home pts | 8.9 | -3.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | TEN at NYG | 7–12 | 1.7 home ptsQB adjusted · original 6.1 home pts | 5 home pts | 3.3 | 2.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | KC at MIA | 24–10 | -5.6 home pts | -14 home pts | 8.4 | -10.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | NE at JAX | 6–35 | 1.3 home pts | 29 home pts | 27.7 | 3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | HOU at IND | 17–19 | 2.2 home pts | 2 home pts | 0.2 | -1.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | NYJ at DET | 24–31 | 0.3 home pts | 7 home pts | 6.7 | 7.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | CAR at CLE | 18–21 | -3.9 home pts | 3 home pts | 6.9 | -2.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | LAC at BUF | 16–24 | 10.7 home pts | 8 home pts | 2.7 | 7.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 3 | ATL at GB | 35–14 | 6.9 home ptsQB adjusted · original 10.5 home pts | -21 home pts | 27.9 | 4.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | NYG at LA | 6–28 | 3.0 home pts | 22 home pts | 19.0 | 6.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | IND at KC | 30–33 | 4.9 home pts | 3 home pts | 1.9 | 6.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | MIA at SF | 13–35 | 12.5 home pts | 22 home pts | 9.5 | 12.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | WAS at DAL | 20–37 | -0.3 home pts | 17 home pts | 17.3 | 3.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | SEA at ARI | 31–7 | 0.1 home ptsQB adjusted · original -2.9 home pts | -24 home pts | 24.1 | -3.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | LV at LAC | 26–14 | -1.8 home pts | -12 home pts | 10.2 | 6.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | JAX at DEN | 13–20 | -6.3 home pts | 7 home pts | 13.3 | 2.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | PHI at TEN | 24–20 | -6.7 home pts | -4 home pts | 2.7 | -7.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | CLE at TB | 23–19 | 7.7 home pts | -4 home pts | 11.7 | 8.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | GB at NYJ | 20–17 | -0.5 home pts | -3 home pts | 2.5 | -3.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | PIT at NE | 3–20 | 2.9 home pts | 17 home pts | 14.1 | 4.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | CIN at HOU | 20–6 | -1.4 home pts | -14 home pts | 12.6 | 3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | MIN at CHI | 9–3 | 4.6 home ptsQB adjusted · original 3.7 home pts | -6 home pts | 10.6 | 4.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | NO at BAL | 24–17 | 11.4 home pts | -7 home pts | 18.4 | 8.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | CAR at ATL | 34–3 | 3.2 home pts | -31 home pts | 34.2 | -2.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 2 | DET at BUF | 31–41 | 2.3 home pts | 10 home pts | 7.7 | 5.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | DEN at KC | 10–31 | 0.6 home ptsQB adjusted · original -5.1 home pts | 21 home pts | 20.4 | 2.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | DAL at NYG | 20–28 | -1.2 home pts | 8 home pts | 9.2 | -3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | WAS at PHI | 22–24 | 1.7 home ptsQB adjusted · original 0.3 home pts | 2 home pts | 0.3 | 6.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | GB at MIN | 22–39 | -1.9 home ptsQB adjusted · original 3.0 home pts | 17 home pts | 18.9 | 1.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | MIA at LV | 13–27 | -3.0 home ptsQB adjusted · original -1.9 home pts | 14 home pts | 17.0 | 3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | ARI at LAC | 26–14 | 4.0 home ptsQB adjusted · original -0.7 home pts | -12 home pts | 16.0 | 8.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | NYJ at TEN | 23–10 | 1.5 home ptsQB adjusted · original 3.3 home pts | -13 home pts | 14.5 | 1.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | ATL at PIT | 13–20 | 4.5 home ptsQB adjusted · original 2.3 home pts | 7 home pts | 2.5 | 6.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | CLE at JAX | 10–34 | 9.9 home ptsQB adjusted · original 10.6 home pts | 24 home pts | 14.1 | 8.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | BAL at IND | 41–23 | -1.1 home ptsQB adjusted · original -4.1 home pts | -18 home pts | 16.9 | -3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | BUF at HOU | 36–31 | -4.5 home ptsQB adjusted · original 0.8 home pts | -5 home pts | 0.5 | -1.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | NO at DET | 30–31 | 7.3 home pts | 1 home pts | 6.3 | 7.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | TB at CIN | 27–33 | 6.1 home pts | 6 home pts | 0.1 | 3.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | CHI at CAR | 59–37 | -2.6 home pts | -22 home pts | 19.4 | -3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | SF at LA | 27–7 | 2.3 home pts | -20 home pts | 22.3 | 3.5 home pts | Retrospective replay |
| 1 | NE at SEA | 10–13 | 0.4 home pts | 3 home pts | 2.6 | 3.0 home pts | Retrospective replay |
Error is the absolute difference between projected and actual home margin. Closing-line and home-only comparisons use the same games. Actual-starter adjustments are retrospective lineup corrections; interactive QB scenarios do not change these results.