Today’s card has a couple of heavy favorites, but that does not mean the best bets are simply to lay the biggest moneyline numbers and move on. Spain already carries a monster price against Cape Verde, so I am mostly looking elsewhere for value. The best angles for me are Iran to take care of business, Belgium and Egypt to give us goals, and Uruguay to win without needing the game to turn into a track meet.
Iran Moneyline vs. New Zealand
Iran Moneyline (-125 at FanDuel)
The first bet is Iran on the moneyline against New Zealand.
Iran are simply the better and more tournament-tested team. I had them at 26 in my rankings compared to 45 for New Zealand. They have more attacking quality, more defensive structure, and have been playing far more meaningful games than New Zealand, whose World Cup path does not offer the same level of testing.
New Zealand’s most obvious route into the game is direct play, set pieces, and Chris Wood turning one half-chance into a goal. That is not nothing, but it is a pretty narrow path. Iran should have more of the ball, more ways to create chances, and enough veteran composure to manage the moment. In a group with Belgium and Egypt, this is the game Iran has to win if they are going to have any real chance to advance.
Belgium vs. Egypt - Over 2.5 Goals
Belgium-Egypt Over 2.5 Goals (-110 at all books)
The second bet is Belgium-Egypt over 2.5 goals.
Belgium are not the airtight defensive machine they were at their peak, but they still have plenty of attacking weapons. Kevin De Bruyne can still unlock a game, Jeremy Doku can wreck defensive shape, and Romelu Lukaku remains a constant threat around the box. Belgium should create chances. They have been scoring at will in recent friendlies, including putting five past the U.S.
The reason I like the over more than simply backing Belgium is that Egypt have enough attacking talent to contribute. Mohamed Salah is still the headline name, and Omar Marmoush gives them another dangerous piece who can punish space. Belgium may control more of the ball, but I do not fully trust them to keep Egypt quiet for 90 minutes.
This feels like the kind of game where Belgium probably get their goals, but Egypt have enough quality to make it uncomfortable. A 2-1 type game feels very live, and once both teams score, the over is in great shape.
Uruguay Win + Under 3.5 Goals vs. Saudi Arabia
Uruguay Win + Under 3.5 Goals (-110 at Bet365)
The third bet is Uruguay to win combined with under 3.5 goals.
Uruguay are the better team and should win this match, but I do not love laying a big moneyline number in a World Cup opener. Saudi Arabia are capable of making games annoying. They are usually organized, willing to defend deep, and comfortable turning matches into something choppy and frustrating.
That is why the win plus under 3.5 makes sense. Uruguay should have the midfield quality, defensive bite, and attacking edge to get the job done, but this does not have to be a blowout. In fact, the most likely Uruguay win scripts feel more like 1-0 or 2-0 than 4-1. Marcelo Bielsa’s teams can be chaotic, but Uruguay also have enough control and defensive talent to avoid turning this into a wide-open game.
If Uruguay are as good as we think they are, they should take three points. I just do not think they need to run up the score to do it.
Odds referenced were available at the listed sportsbooks at time of writing and may move before kickoff. The record tracker assumes one unit risked on each official posted selection. Always shop lines and bet responsibly.