The Orioles entered the All-Star break with some positive momentum, finally doing the one thing they had failed to do seven times already this season, winning four games in a row. It took a three-game sweep of the last-place Royals to get there, and it came on the heels of two listless nights against the Cubs that dropped Baltimore into last place in the AL East. The week ends with the O’s at 46-51, eleven and a half games behind Tampa Bay and, courtesy of a thoroughly mediocre American League, only two games out of the final wild card spot. It is the first home series the Orioles have won since May.
Tuesday’s opener against Chicago was a redux of the season. Shane Baz turned in his seventh quality start, six innings of three-run ball on 100 pitches, and got nothing for it. Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd shut the O’s down for six innings. Alex Bregman drove in two, with an RBI single in the third and a fielder’s choice in the fifth, and Pete Crow-Armstrong singled home a run in the fifth. Michael Busch’s sacrifice fly off Anthony Nunez made it 4-0 in the seventh. Adley Rutschman delivered a two-out, bases-loaded, two-run single off former Oriole Jacob Webb to pull the O’s within 4-2, but Gunnar Henderson struck out to end the inning and Dansby Swanson’s RBI single in the eighth restored the margin. The Birds finished with six hits, all singles, and went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position.
Wednesday was no better. Dean Kremer allowed just six hits in five innings, but four of them were solo home runs. Pete Alonso’s two-run shot, his 20th, had given the O’s a 3-1 lead before Michael Conforto and Carson Kelly went deep on the first two pitches of the fifth and Crow-Armstrong followed inside a four-batter span. The Cubs then hung five on the bullpen in the seventh, capped by a Seiya Suzuki three-run homer, to lead 9-3. The Orioles at least made it interesting. Tyler O’Neill homered as a pinch-hitter and Taylor Ward singled in a run in the seventh, then Coby Mayo launched a 420-foot drive into the second deck in left in the eighth and O’Neill followed with a 433-foot shot to left-center. Jackson Holliday had four hits out of the nine hole, but the O’s fell 9-7.
Thursday’s finale was moved to an afternoon start ahead of the weather, and the Orioles took it 3-2 on three hits. Trevor Rogers continued to look like the good version of himself, giving up one run over six innings. O’Neill homered in the second for the game’s first run. With the score tied in the eighth, Jeremiah Jackson pinch-hit for Dylan Beavers and doubled into the right-center gap to score Henderson and Alonso. Tyler Wells picked up the win despite surrendering an RBI double to Suzuki, and Andrew Kittredge worked the ninth for his second save as the rain arrived at Camden Yards.
The Royals arrived at Camden Yards on Friday and the Orioles took advantage of their struggles. Baltimore strung together four singles in the second, with Holliday and Henderson driving in runs, and Blaze Alexander answered a two-run Kansas City fourth with a 436-foot homer to put the O’s back in front. Brandon Young carried a 3-2 lead into the eighth on just 77 pitches before Isaac Collins led off with a game-tying homer. Alonso opened the bottom half with a single, and Samuel Basallo hooked a slider from lefty Matt Strahm just inside the right-field foul pole for his 15th homer, with an exuberant bat toss to celebrate. Rico Garcia got the win and Kittredge closed out the 5-3 win.
Saturday belonged to Kyle Bradish, who carried a no-hitter into the seventh before Jac Caglianone led off the inning with a single to center. Bradish finished with one run on two hits over 6.2 innings, walking two and striking out five, and dropped his ERA to 3.61. The offense handled the rest, with four of the O’s six hits leaving the yard. Basallo drove in the first run in the second after an Alonso leadoff double. Alonso then hit a 420-foot two-run homer in the fourth. Mayo led off the fifth with a 440-foot blast that struck the second-deck facade at 110.4 mph off the bat. Ward added his first home run at Camden Yards this season in the sixth, and Henderson added a homer in the eighth, his first since June 19, to cap the 6-1 win.
The O’s completed the sweep on Sunday, cruising to an 8-2 win. Baz struck out nine but needed 104 pitches to get through 4.2 innings, allowing two runs, one earned, on seven hits without a walk. The bullpen picked him up, with five relievers covering the final 4.1 innings without giving up a run. Leody Taveras put Baltimore ahead with a two-run homer off Seth Lugo in the second, and after Lane Thomas tied it with an RBI single in the third, the game stayed level until the sixth. Then Alonso, Taveras, Jackson and Henderson all drove in runs off Matt Strahm. Basallo tacked on a solo shot in the seventh to seal the win. Henderson finished with three hits, Alexander had two and scored twice, and Taveras drove in three. Grant Wolfram got the win.
Unfortunately the sweep came at a cost. Blaze Alexander was hit on the left hand in the ninth inning, and postgame imaging revealed a non-displaced fracture.
Four straight wins is four straight wins, and after eight tries this season, the Orioles will take it. The break gives them four days off before they open the second half Friday in Houston. It does not change what the first half was, and it does not make the decisions in front of the front office any easier. If anything, it makes them harder.
Player of the Week
Several Orioles made a case in a week that ended far better than it started. Pete Alonso was the most complete offensive performer, going 6-for-22 with two home runs, a double and five RBI while posting a .976 OPS. He hit his 20th on Wednesday and a 420-foot, two-run drive on Saturday for number 21.
Tyler O’Neill did his damage in a hurry, hitting three home runs in just 13 at-bats, including a pinch-hit shot Wednesday and a 433-foot drive later in the same game. He slugged 1.000 for the week. Taylor Ward got there a different way, drawing eight walks in 26 plate appearances for a .538 on-base percentage and a 1.009 OPS, and his sixth-inning blast Saturday was his first home run at Camden Yards this season.
Shane Baz merits a mention for two starts that deserved better. Baz worked 10.2 innings, struck out 12 against three walks and allowed four earned runs for a 3.38 ERA, and came away 0-1. His nine-strikeout, one-earned-run afternoon Sunday was the sharpest stuff he has shown in weeks, even if a 104-pitch slog through 4.2 innings kept him from a decision.
The award goes to Kyle Bradish, who was phenomenal Saturday night and gave this team the kind of start it has lacked this season. Bradish carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning before Jac Caglianone lined a single to left-center, and he finished with one run on two hits across 6.2 innings, walking two and striking out five on 96 pitches. That is a 1.35 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP for the week, and his season mark dropped to 3.61.
This is a rotation that has spent the season either dominating or detonating, with very little in between, and a bullpen that has been asked to cover far too many innings behind short outings. Bradish handed the ball to Albernaz with two outs in the seventh and a five-run lead. That is what a healthy front-line starter looks like.
Down on the Farm
Norfolk remains a difficult watch, but the pitching showed some promise this week.
Nestor German was excellent on Saturday, tossing seven shutout innings against Syracuse with six strikeouts and only five baserunners, and he did it against a lineup in which every hitter had major league experience. It was his second consecutive scoreless outing. Less encouraging was Cade Povich, who was hammered for seven runs on six hits and four walks in 3.1 innings.
At the plate, Christian Encarnacion-Strand was the standout, hitting .333 with two home runs, two doubles and seven RBI in 15 at-bats for a 1.279 OPS. Heston Kjerstad had his best week in some time, going 5-for-13 with a double and two RBI for an .862 OPS. Enrique Bradfield Jr. hit .231 with a triple, two walks and a stolen base, and Jud Fabian went hitless in six at-bats while drawing three walks. Creed Willems remains on the injured list, which has taken some of the interest out of the Norfolk box scores.
Chesapeake had some solid performances on the mound. Luis De León was extraordinary Saturday at Akron, throwing eight scoreless innings with five strikeouts while allowing just two hits and a walk. It was the longest outing of his professional career by two full innings. Juaron Watts-Brown followed with five innings of one-run ball and eight strikeouts, and Joseph Dzierwa opened the week with five innings of one-run, three-hit ball without issuing a walk.
The Baysox lineup was carried by Douglas Hodo III, who hit .286 with two home runs, six RBI and two stolen bases for a .994 OPS, and by Dom Keegan, who slashed .353/.450/.529 with a triple and four RBI. Frederick Bencosme chipped in two doubles and a .412 on-base percentage. Aron Estrada had a quiet week, managing four hits in 22 at-bats.
Dzierwa and Ike Irish represented the Orioles at the All-Star Futures Game on Sunday at Citizens Bank Park. Dzierwa, the second-round pick out of Michigan State last summer, has been the single most encouraging development in this system all year, and he is the highest-drafted pitcher of the entire Elias era. There is a lesson in there somewhere.
Question of the Week
Is it time for a change at the top?
Not to be a Debbie Downer after the first four game winning streak, but I’m not buying that this team has really turned any kind of corner (and I wrote most of this before the win streak). Even with the winning streak heading into the break, the team is still a longshot to make the playoffs or produce any kind of prolonged postseason run.
Let’s start with what the numbers say about the team at the All-Star break.
Through 96 games, the Orioles scored 439 runs, or 4.57 per game, which is fractionally above the major league average of 4.52. They hit .238/.319/.399 with 115 home runs, and their 102 OPS+ says the offense has been marginally better than league average once you account for the park. They walked 367 times, the fourth-highest total in baseball. They also struck out 870 times, the fourth-highest total in baseball.
The pitching is the softer half. Baltimore’s 4.32 ERA ranks 20th and works out to a 98 ERA+, a hair below league average. The 4.23 FIP is essentially league average, which suggests the run prevention has been roughly what the peripherals deserve rather than a case of bad luck. The staff has struck out 8.0 per nine against a league mark of 8.5 and walked 3.5, and the resulting 1.357 WHIP is meaningfully worse than the league’s 1.309. The Orioles have allowed 464 runs, 4.83 per game, and have thrown two team shutouts all season, tied for the second fewest in baseball. Before the Cubs series, the bullpen ranked 18th in the majors with a 4.25 ERA, and that was with Ryan Helsley already on the injured list.
Put it together and the run differential is minus 25. A team that scores 439 and allows 464 should win about 46 games in 96, which is precisely what the Orioles have done. There is no hidden good team here waiting to be uncovered by better sequencing. This is a mediocre baseball team, plain and simple.
Which brings us to the harder question. Whose fault is that?
I mostly give Craig Albernaz a pass. The first-year manager has done nothing to inspire confidence, and I’m not really sure what he brings to the table, but it is difficult to look at this roster and conclude that the man filling out the lineup card is the main reason it is not working. The issue is the players, the development, the absence of impact pitching, and the organizational philosophy that produced all three. Absent something behind the scenes we do not know about, you might as well let Albernaz finish the year and see whether he grows into the job. Evaluate him in October, and if the answer is that this club needs a more veteran, more polished voice, make that change then. It is not the change that matters most.
The change that matters most is higher up.
It has become fairly clear that 2023 was the exception and not the rule. The trajectory of this franchise mirrors the trajectory of its own stars with uncomfortable precision. The team experienced a fast rise toward something like stardom, a moment almost touching the sun, and then a slow slide back to the middle. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser and Grayson Rodriguez have all followed some version of that arc. Rutschman is the one who has climbed back out, and his third All-Star selection this month is a genuinely earned reward for a full winter of work. To a lesser degree, Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday tore up the upper minors and have never sustained anything in the big leagues. Samuel Basallo looks like the exception as of now, but Orioles fans have thought that before.
The record under Mike Elias speaks for itself. Since taking over in November 2018, his teams have gone 54-108, 25-35, 52-110, 83-79, 101-61, 91-71, 75-87, and now 46-51. That is one division title, one wild card berth and zero playoff wins. Not zero series. Zero games. Swept by Texas in the 2023 ALDS, swept by Kansas City in the 2024 wild card round. All the tanking, all the losing, all the years of asking a fan base to swallow a rebuild in exchange for a consistently competitive team, and this is the return. There is no way to grade that as anything other than a failure.
Saturday added a data point that will look familiar to anyone who has been paying attention. With the seventh overall pick, the highest the Orioles have held since Holliday in 2022, Elias took prep outfielder Eric Booth Jr. He may well be terrific. He was also the fourth straight top pick spent on an outfielder, and the eighth straight spent on a position player. In eight drafts, Elias has never taken a pitcher in the first round. Meanwhile the 2026 rotation was built almost entirely by trade and free agency, Zach Eflin is gone for the year, Keegan Akin is headed to an elbow specialist, and Helsley’s elbow has cost him most of the summer. The gap in the pitching pipeline is not an accident. It is a policy.
Which is why it would be a serious mistake to hand this front office the trade deadline.
The August 3 deadline arrives with the Orioles two games out of a wild card spot in an American League where almost nobody is any good. Elias has said the building is “in the mindset of going for it in 2026,” and he has said his own job security “definitely would not be any type of factor” in his decisions. Bob Nightengale has reported that Elias is telling clubs he is willing to move prospects. Take him at his word if you like, but understand the position he is in. A general manager in year eight of a mandate that has produced one playoff berth in the last two seasons, working for owners who have already spent, has every incentive in the world to do something dramatic and none to do something patient. Those incentives are not aligned with the long-term health of this franchise.
Set aside the conflict of interest and there is still no track record here that suggests you want Elias making these particular decisions. He is a good seller. He turned Dylan Bundy into Bradish and Jorge López into Yennier Cano and Cade Povich, and last July he converted a fire sale into a pile of prospects. He has never once shown he can make a win-now move that moves the needle. If the price of keeping him away from the deadline is that the Orioles stand entirely pat, so be it. Doing nothing is a defensible outcome. Doing something desperate is not.
The counterargument deserves a hearing. Elias inherited the worst organization in baseball and rebuilt the infrastructure from the ground up, and the industry spent five years praising him for it. The Orioles have had their share of injury issues, though they were not all unpredictable. The team is two games out of a playoff spot. Firing a president of baseball operations in the middle of July is not going to magically turn the team around. Reporters and bloggers around the O’s have differing opinions on how to handle the situation. Reasonable people are looking at the same club and landing in different places, and that in itself tells you something about how muddled this thing is.
However, muddled is not where we are supposed to be right now. Now where we were promised after “lift off.”
When Elias and Sig Mejdal arrived, they represented a real shift toward analytical player evaluation, and the Orioles badly needed it. That was 2019. Analytical evaluation is table stakes now. Every front office in the sport has it. The question is no longer whether you use the tools, it is whether you use them to find an edge that other clubs have not, and there is no evidence this regime has found one in years. They have consistently hired managers whose primary qualification appears to be a willingness to implement whatever comes down from the Warehouse. Their development system has produced a generation of hitters who peaked in Triple-A and a pitching staff assembled almost entirely from other organizations’ work.
So, in my opinion, the time is now. The draft has concluded, the trade deadline is approaching and the All-Star break provides a moment for reflection and a natural ending point.
So if they give Elias his walking paper, then what comes next?
It should be a reset, not a rebuild.
The young core is still cheap for a few more years, and that is an asset, not a burden. The obligation now falls on ownership. David Rubenstein needs to prove his group is willing to spend, willing to do what it takes to get two top-of-the-rotation starters this winter. Not one. Two.
That is the minimum needed to transform this roster into a real contender, and it is available for money rather than prospects. If this ownership group is not willing to write those checks, then there is no honest option but to blow it up, trade Alonso, Henderson, Rogers and Bradish, and start over. And if it comes to that, nobody should be expected to care about this team for the next five to ten years. Maybe the fans come back. Maybe they don’t.
Short of that, you roll with these guys for another year or two and hope that a new philosophy, and maybe a new voice, can extract something closer to their potential. You find a GM who can combine the analytics with the practical abilities and determination to sign the necessary free agents to put the team over the top. Someone whose top concern is winning baseball games and not winning awards and plaudits from his colleagues. Someone who can identify a manager that inspires this team, elevates their performance to meet their promise and has the experience to steal wins in critical games instead of coughing them up.
As far as approaching the deadline with either a lame duck in charge or a void at the top. The team should be cautious. There is no need for dramatic moves. No desperation move is going to realistically put this team in a position to win anything meaningful this year. And there are no pending free agents that are so valuable they must be dealt.
Now, if a club puts an over-the-top offer on the table for Adley Rutschman, you would have to at least listen, provided the return helps in the near term and is not just a stack of lottery tickets. Basallo is more than capable of catching every day. But even that would leave a hole in a lineup that already has too many of them, and that is not a trade you go looking for.
Maybe you sell high on Trevor Rogers after he strings together some stellar starts. Or maybe someone offers you something worth taking for Taylor Ward. But outside that, there isn’t a need to make a splash.
The bottom line is this. The manager is not the problem. The players are underachieving, but they are the players this organization drafted, developed and chose to build around. That is not a coaching failure. That is an organizational failure, and organizational failures get fixed at the top. Let Albernaz finish the season. Keep Elias away from the deadline. And when the year ends, make the change that in hindsight probably should have been made at the end of last season.