Today’s card has a little bit of everything: a massive favorite, a couple of evenly matched games, and one very interesting underdog spot. I am mostly staying away from the Germany-Curaçao mismatch because the lines are already inflated enough that you have to talk yourself into some pretty ugly numbers. Instead, the best value looks to be in the three more competitive games.
Ecuador-Côte d’Ivoire Under 2.5 Goals + Ecuador Double Chance
Ecuador-Côte d'Ivoire Under 2.5 Goals + Ecuador Double Chance (-125 at DraftKings)
This is my favorite bet of the day.
Ecuador and Côte d’Ivoire both enter the tournament with strong defensive profiles, and this game sets up more like a cagey opener than a wide-open shootout. Ecuador were excellent defensively throughout qualifying, and while they are not always the most explosive attacking team, they are organized, physical, and very difficult to break down. Côte d’Ivoire have plenty of talent, but this does not feel like a matchup where either team is going to be comfortable turning the game into a track meet.
That makes the under the starting point. The double chance leg is added because I trust Ecuador a little more to manage the game. This bet gives us 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 Ecuador, or 2-0 Ecuador. In a matchup where one goal may be enough and two goals may be plenty, that feels like the right way to play it.
Sweden-Tunisia Both Teams to Score
Sweden-Tunisia Both Teams to Score (-106 at Bet365)
Sweden are the more talented team and probably the rightful favorite, but I do not trust them enough defensively to simply back them to win and move on. Their attacking talent is obvious, especially with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres giving them one of the more dangerous striker pairings in the tournament. Sweden should create chances and I would be surprised if they are held scoreless.
The question is whether Tunisia can contribute enough to get this over the line, and I think they can. Tunisia are not loaded with attacking stars, but they are organized, direct enough to cause problems, and dangerous enough on counters and set pieces to punish a Sweden team that can be a little loose defensively. I like Sweden to get on the board, but I do not love the clean sheet side of the equation.
Japan +0.5 vs. Netherlands
Japan +0.5 (-120 at Bet365)
The final bet is Japan +0.5 against the Netherlands.
This is not a bet that Japan are definitely better than the Netherlands. The Dutch have more star power, more size, and plenty of experience in these kinds of games. But Japan are one of the most organized and technically sharp teams in the tournament, and they have shown repeatedly that they can make life miserable for more traditional European powers.
Japan +0.5 means we cash if Japan win or draw, and that is the right angle here. The Netherlands may win, but I do not think there is enough separation between these teams to justify treating Japan like a clear underdog. They are disciplined, comfortable without the ball, and dangerous enough in transition to keep the Dutch from fully controlling the game.
In a matchup that feels closer to a toss-up than the market suggests, I will take the half goal with Japan.
Odds referenced were available at the listed sportsbooks at time of writing and may move before kickoff. The record tracker assumes one unit risked on each official posted selection. Always shop lines and bet responsibly.