Group: F — Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia

How they Qualified: Won UEFA Group G. The Dutch finished unbeaten with 20 points, three ahead of Poland, and sealed qualification with a 4-0 win over Lithuania. Tijjani Reijnders, Cody Gakpo, Xavi Simons and Donyell Malen scored in the clincher.

Best World Cup Finish: Runners-Up (1974, 1978, 2010)

Transfermarkt Roster Value: $897.3 M

FIFA Rank: 7

Odds to Win Group: -130

Odds to Advance: -1400

Odds to Win Cup: 20-1

Key Players:

  • Virgil van Dijk — Center Back — Liverpool (Premier League). Van Dijk is 34 now, and he is not quite the same overwhelming athlete he was at his peak, but he is still the organizer and emotional center of the Dutch team. Transfermarkt values him at $21.2m, with 90 caps and 12 goals, and his importance is bigger than the number. In a team that can look dangerous in possession but occasionally loose in transition, Van Dijk is the player who gives the whole thing authority, anchoring one of the best back lines in the tournament.
  • Frenkie de Jong — Midfielder — Barcelona (Spain). De Jong is still the midfielder who makes the Netherlands feel like a Dutch team. Transfermarkt values him at $52.9m, and when he is healthy, he gives Koeman press resistance, ball progression and control in the first two phases of buildup. The Netherlands have more direct runners and more vertical threats than some past versions, but De Jong is the one who can dictate the pace of the game.
  • Cody Gakpo — Forward/Winger — Liverpool (Premier League). Gakpo is probably the most reliable attacking piece in the squad right now. Transfermarkt values him at $76.4m, and he has 19 goals in 48 caps for the national team. He can start wide left, drift central, attack the back post, take penalties, deliver set pieces and give the Netherlands a goal threat that does not depend entirely on a traditional No. 9.

Playing Style and Outlook

The Netherlands may be the best team in the tournament just outside the true favorites. That sounds strange for a country ranked seventh in the world, with a nearly $900 million squad and a long tournament pedigree, but that is where they are. They are not carrying the same hype as France, Spain, England, Brazil, Argentina or Portugal. They are also probably better than most of the teams being treated as dark horses.

Ronald Koeman’s team is built around a pretty logical 4-2-3-1, though there is enough flexibility in the back line and fullback roles that it can look different depending on the opponent. Their projected lineup has Bart Verbruggen in goal, Denzel Dumfries, Jurriën Timber, Van Dijk and Micky van de Ven across the back, Ryan Gravenberch and De Jong in the double pivot, Reijnders as the advanced midfielder, Gakpo on the left, Malen on the right and Memphis Depay up front. That may not be the exact lineup, but it captures the idea of a strong defensive spine, two midfielders who can play through pressure, fullbacks who can provide width, and Gakpo as the most dependable attacking outlet.

The best version of the Netherlands is controlled without being slow. De Jong and Gravenberch can help them build, Reijnders gives them late runs and more goal threat from midfield, and Gakpo gives them a player who can turn possession into something dangerous. They are also a real set-piece team, which matters in tournament soccer. Van Dijk scored with a header from a Teun Koopmeiners corner against Norway in March, and Gakpo, Memphis, Koopmeiners and Reijnders all give Koeman delivery options.

The March friendlies were useful because they showed both the promise and the caveats. The 2-1 win over Norway was a solid performance, but Norway were without Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, which is a pretty significant asterisk. Still, the Dutch showed they can come from behind, with Van Dijk scoring from a corner, and Reijnders finding the winner after a quick midfield turnover and a Dumfries cross.

The Dutch have one of the best and most dynamic back lines in the tournament. Van Dijk is the centerpiece but van de Ven brings size and speed as his center back partner while Dumfries and Timber (or Ake) complement each other well. Dumfries will fly up the right side and get heavily involved in the attack while Timber and Ake both provide a steady presence on the opposite side, with enough quality on the ball to drift inside at times, providing an extra midfielder.

The striker question is the biggest issue. Memphis is the all-time leading scorer for the national team and still has the penalty-box instincts and set-piece quality to matter, but he has been dealing with fitness issues. Wout Weghorst gives them a useful late-game option, Donyell Malen has been hot to close the season for Roma, and Gakpo can play centrally if Koeman wants a different profile, but there is no obvious world-class No. 9 here. That is probably the main reason the Netherlands are a step below the top tier of favorites. The defense and midfield look like contender-level units. The attack is good, but not quite as terrifying.

The group is manageable, but it is not a free pass. Japan are the toughest opener they could have drawn from this group because they are tactically organized, comfortable defending without the ball, and dangerous in transition. That first match in Dallas may tell us a lot. If the Netherlands can control Japan without getting caught by Kubo, Doan or Japan’s wingback runs, they probably take command of the group immediately. If Japan get a result, Group F becomes much more interesting.

Sweden are the more physically dangerous opponent. With Viktor Gyökeres, Alexander Isak and Anthony Elanga, they have enough attacking talent to make any back line uncomfortable, even one led by Van Dijk. The Dutch should have more midfield control, but Sweden can turn a match into a more direct, aerial, second-ball contest than the Netherlands would prefer. That second game in Houston is probably where Koeman will most need Van Dijk, Van de Ven and the midfield screen to stay connected.

Tunisia are the game the Netherlands should win, they would prefer not to enter the game needing a result. Tunisia will likely sit compact, defend in numbers and try to counter. That is where the Dutch need patience, width and set-piece execution. It is also where the striker issue could show up if they dominate territory but do not turn it into clean chances.

The market has the Netherlands as clear Group F favorites. Japan and Sweden are good enough to make this competitive, but the Netherlands have the best blend of defensive structure, midfield control and attacking options in the group.

The larger question is whether they can actually win the tournament. Koeman recently said the Netherlands have enough quality to beat anyone, even if they are not widely viewed as one of the top favorites, and that is probably the correct framing. They can beat anyone, but they may not be quite complete enough to beat three or four elite teams in a row. Last World Cup they made a good run only to be knocked off in penalties by Messi’s Argentina, the eventual winners.

That puts them in a fascinating spot. They have a world-class defensive leader, real midfield quality, a dangerous wide scorer in Gakpo, and enough tournament experience to navigate difficult moments. If the No. 9 spot produces and the attack finds one more gear, this is absolutely a semifinal-caliber team. If not, they may once again look like the Dutch sides of the past, good enough to scare everyone, just not quite ruthless enough to finish the job.