Group: L — England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

How they Qualified: Won UEFA Group L. Croatia went unbeaten in qualifying, finishing 7-0-1 with 26 goals scored and only four conceded. They officially sealed qualification with a 3-1 comeback win over the Faroe Islands, with Joško Gvardiol, Petar Musa and Nikola Vlašić scoring.

Best World Cup Finish: 2nd Place (2018)

Transfermarkt Roster Value: $333.2 M

FIFA Rank: 11

Odds to Win Group: +350

Odds to Advance: -500

Odds to Win Cup: 80-1

Key Players:

  • Luka Modrić — Midfielder — AC Milan (Italy). Modrić is 40 years old, somehow still central to Croatia’s entire identity, and almost certainly heading into his final World Cup. The offense still runs through his ability to find space, slow the game down, speed it up, and make the pass that breaks a defensive shape. He is the creative conductor and emotional heart of the team.
  • Joško Gvardiol — Center Back/Left Back — Manchester City (Premier League). Gvardiol is Croatia’s most valuable player at $82.3m, and he is the piece that lets the back line feel modern rather than just experienced. When fit, he gives Croatia a left-sided defender who can carry the ball, defend space, and cover ground in a way most of this aging group cannot. The concern is health: he is still working back from a leg fracture. He has returned to training for Man City and appears on track to be ready for the Cup.
  • Andrej Kramarić — Forward/Attacking Midfielder — Hoffenheim (Germany). Kramarić is still Croatia’s most reliable attacking connector and finisher. He led them in qualifying with six goals. He will likely play in a deeper role behind the striker, where he can drift between lines and let Ante Budimir or Petar Musa occupy the center backs. For a team that can sometimes control possession without creating a ton of clean chances, Kramarić’s movement and finishing are huge.

Playing Style and Outlook

With our 14th ranked team, we are in the group of teams who can plausibly make a deep run in the tournament and even potentially be dark horse candidates to lift the trophy. Croatia are the team everyone keeps trying to age out of relevance, and they keep refusing to go away. The 2018 run to the final looked like the peak. Then they finished third in 2022. Then Euro 2024 looked like the decline, with an early group-stage exit and real questions about whether the midfield could still handle the speed and pressure of modern tournament soccer. Then qualifying started, and Croatia went right back to looking like Croatia: a controlled, stubborn, technically clean team, almost impossible to fully kill off.

Under Zlatko Dalić, the shape is likely to be a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, but the identity is more important than the exact formation. Croatia want to manage tempo through midfield. Modrić, Mateo Kovačić and Mario Pašalić give them a group that can still keep the ball, draw pressure, and make games feel slower than opponents want. They are a possession team built around midfield maestros and experience.

That midfield control is the reason Croatia are still dangerous. They may not have the explosive wide attackers of the tournament favorites, and they are not going to overwhelm teams with speed. But they understand match states better than almost anyone. They know when to sit in, when to keep possession just to drain pressure, when to foul, when to slow the game down, and when to turn one loose ball into a chance. That sounds boring until you remember how many knockout games they have survived doing exactly that.

The concern is physical decline. Modrić is 40. Ivan Perišić is 37. Kovačić is coming off Achilles surgery. Gvardiol’s fitness is a major question. If those players are not at their best, Croatia’s floor drops quickly. If they are ready, the ceiling rises back into the familiar “nobody wants to see them in a knockout game” range.

Their March friendlies captured both sides of the team. Croatia beat Colombia 2-1 after conceding in the second minute, with Luka Vušković and Igor Matanović turning the game around. Then they lost 3-1 to Brazil, in a game that was closer than the scoreline until late. That demonstrates Croatia are still resilient, still capable, but not quite airtight against elite athleticism.

The group is tricky because the order matters. Opening against England is a big ask, but also an opportunity. If Croatia get a draw or a win in Arlington, they suddenly have a real chance to win Group L. If they lose, the group becomes more uncomfortable because Ghana are dangerous enough to make the final match in Philadelphia a real pressure game. Panama are the weakest team on paper, but Croatia cannot afford to leave that second match with anything less than three points.

England are clearly the most talented team in the group. Ghana have more pace and attacking volatility. Panama are organized and experienced enough to make games annoying. But Croatia are still the team in this group with the most tournament muscle memory. They have lived in tense World Cup matches for almost a decade, and that matters.

The most likely outcome is that Croatia advance, probably second behind England. The more interesting question is whether they have one more weirdly deep run left. If Modrić can still control games, if Gvardiol is healthy, if Kovačić has enough legs, and if Kramarić or Budimir can turn possession into goals, Croatia can beat a better-looking team in the knockout rounds. They are not as fresh as the teams above them in this countdown, but they are more trustworthy than almost anyone behind them.