This was yet another week where the Orioles teased fans with some promise only to whipsaw back down worse than where they started, continuing the trend of one step forward, two steps back. The Birds welcomed the struggling Astros to Camden Yards for a three-game set that was rearranged by weather into a Tuesday opener and a Thursday doubleheader. They took two of three, highlighted by an offensive outburst in the first game of the doubleheader, but couldn’t complete the sweep as the nightcap turned ugly in a hurry.
Following the Astros series, the O’s traveled to the Bronx for the first three games of a four-game set against the AL-best Yankees and were thoroughly outclassed, dropping all three by a combined score of 27-9. It was the kind of series that lays bare the gap between the true contenders and whatever the Orioles are now. The Yankees have now won 11 of their last 12 meetings against Baltimore, and the O’s dropped to 15-19 on the season, four games under .500 for the first time this year. On top of that, there was more worrying injury news on the already threadbare pitching staff.
Tuesday’s opener with the Astros was Shane Baz‘s best outing in an Orioles uniform. Baz earned his first win since the December trade from Tampa Bay, holding Houston to one run on six hits and a walk across 5.2 innings while striking out six. Adley Rutschman set the tone with an RBI single in the first. Samuel Basallo followed with an RBI double to right to make it 2-0. The game stayed tight until the fifth, when Pete Alonso crushed an opposite-field two-run homer off reliever Ryan Weiss to push the lead to 4-1. Ryan Helsley eventually slammed the door in the ninth for his seventh save in as many opportunities in a 5-3 win.
Wednesday’s game was postponed due to rain, setting up a single-admission doubleheader on Thursday. Chris Bassitt started the first game and continued to correct course from his disastrous early season, delivering his best outing of the season. Bassitt went 6.2 innings allowing just one earned run on seven hits while striking out seven.
Jeremiah Jackson opened the scoring with an RBI double in the fourth, and then the floodgates opened. In the fifth, with the bases loaded, Rutschman lined a ball to the left-center field wall. Astros center fielder Brice Matthews leaped and appeared to make the catch, but as he crashed into the wall the ball slipped out and fell into the bullpen for a grand slam. Jackson added a grand slam of his own in the seventh, jumping on the first pitch from Jason Alexander, a hanging sweeper that he deposited over the left field fence. It was the first time the Orioles hit two grand slams in a game since September 11, 2015, and just the eighth time in franchise history, prompting Jim Palmer to eat his first chicken wing ever in an amusing exchange on the broadcast. The O’s won 10-3.
Whatever magic was in the air for the first game evaporated immediately in the nightcap. Brandon Young, who had been solid in his first two starts of the season, struggled from the very first inning, victimized by the team’s ugly defense. Dustin Harris floated a two-out, two-run single to right that Tyler O’Neill misplayed, and Cam Smith followed with a three-run homer to put the Astros up 5-0 before the O’s even came to bat. Yordan Alvarez added a solo shot in the second to make it 6-0, and by the fourth inning Young had allowed 10 runs (seven earned) on 10 hits. The defense did him no favors, with balls finding holes and plays going unmade all over the field. Lance McCullers Jr., in sharp contrast, held the O’s to just two hits and three runs across six innings while striking out nine as the Birds fell 11-5.
Also of note, both Trevor Rogers and Ryan Helsley were placed on the 15-day injured list. Rogers hit the list with an illness, retroactive to April 26. More concerning was Helsley, who has been outstanding to start the year, who went down with the always-ominous “elbow inflammation.”
Friday’s opener in New York was a mismatch from the outset. Cade Povich (1-1) was recalled to fill one of the empty rotation spots and ran straight into the teeth of the Yankees’ lineup. José Caballero broke a 1-1 tie with a solo homer in the second, and Ben Rice followed with a three-run blast to blow it open. Will Warren was outstanding on the other side, striking out nine in 6.1 innings while allowing just two runs (one earned) and three hits. Pete Alonso provided the lone highlight, launching his fifth homer in his first trip back to New York since leaving the Mets, but the O’s managed just three hits total in a 7-2 loss.
Saturday was the Cody Bellinger show. The Yankees left fielder went 4-for-4 with two solo homers and four RBI, putting New York ahead with a solo shot off Kyle Bradish (1-4) in the second and adding another off Keegan Akin in the fifth. Trent Grisham tacked on a two-run homer in the fourth as the Yankees moved a season-high 11 games over .500 at 22-11. Alonso homered again, his sixth, and Samuel Basallo drove in a run, but the Orioles’ bats were otherwise quiet against lefty Ryan Weathers, who allowed just one earned run in five-plus innings and the O’s fell 9-4. The loss extended Baltimore’s record to 0-7 against left-handed starters this season, a trend that has gone from quirky to genuinely alarming.
Sunday brought the major league debut of Trey Gibson, the club’s No. 3 prospect who was called up from Norfolk to fill the rotation hole created by Rogers’ IL stint. To his credit, Gibson kept the O’s in the game, allowing three runs on four hits across 4.2 innings, with two walks and two strikeouts. Rice hit a solo homer off him in the first and Judge tagged him for a two-run shot in the third, but Gibson battled and left with the game tied at 3-3. The defense did him no favors, with Weston Wilson muffing a grounder at third base that allowed Judge to reach in the first. The offense actually pressured Fried with a fully right-handed lineup, with Blaze Alexander blooping an RBI single in the third and two runs scoring in the fourth on a Leody Taveras infield single and a Jeremiah Jackson groundout. But the O’s couldn’t deliver the decisive blow and the bullpen eventually caved when Andrew Kittredge surrendered seven runs in the eighth, leading to an 11-3 loss.
The series crystallized a few uncomfortable realities, demonstrating just how large the gap between the O’s and the division leaders really is. Although the O’s have their share of injuries, the Yankees are also missing two of their top starters in Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, as well as Giancarlo Stanton. In a week where the bats carried the team for a few games, the pitching staff was badly exposed, both the starters and the bullpen. The team is able to take advantage of some of the struggling teams in the league but they badly failed one of their first tests against top competition.
While it wasn’t a great week for the Orioles by any measure, Pete Alonso picked a good time to look like the hitter Baltimore thought it was paying for. The Polar Bear slashed .316/.435/.895 across the six games, launching three homers and driving in five while drawing four walks. Two of those homers came on back-to-back nights in the Bronx, his first trip to New York since leaving the Mets, a setting that clearly brought out something in him. After a brutal first month that had his OPS sitting in the .600s and his strikeout rate at career-worst levels, this was the first sustained stretch where Alonso looked like himself. The power was loud, the plate discipline was improved, and the at-bats had a purpose that had been missing. One week doesn’t erase the slow start, but if this is the version of Alonso that shows up going forward, the lineup becomes a fundamentally different animal.
Samuel Basallo deserves a nod for his steady presence in the middle of the lineup. The 21-year-old hit .294 with two doubles and two RBI, continuing to look like a player who belongs at this level. He doesn’t chase, he uses the whole field, and he rarely gives away at-bats. In a week where much of the lineup went cold against Yankees pitching, Basallo was one of the few hitters who consistently put good swings on the ball.
Chris Bassitt also earned mention for his best start as an Oriole in the first game of the Houston doubleheader, going 6.2 innings and allowing just one earned run on seven hits while striking out seven. After weeks of being a legitimate liability with an ERA north of 14, Bassitt finally delivered the kind of outing the Orioles envisioned when they signed him. Whether he can build on it remains to be seen, but at minimum it was a reminder that there’s a competent pitcher in there somewhere.
Down on the Farm
Norfolk had a quiet week at the plate, but a few names stood out. Creed Willems continues to look comfortable in his first taste of Triple-A, clubbing his third homer of the season while driving in four runs with a .788 OPS on the week. Non-prospect, 26 year-old Christian Encarnacion-Strand showed some pop with two homers and three RBI, though the .269 OBP suggests he’s still selling out for power. Jud Fabian added a homer and two steals, keeping his name in the conversation as a toolsy outfield option, even as the batting average (.217) remains a concern.
On the mound, Yaqui Rivera was the week’s headliner, spinning 4.1 innings of one-hit ball with six strikeouts and no runs allowed. Levi Wells turned in a solid five-inning start, allowing just one earned run on three hits to pick up a win. Less encouraging was Nestor German, who issued six walks in four innings, a departure from the command he showed at AA last season.
Down at AA Chesapeake, Aron Estrada continued to rake. The 22-year-old infielder slashed .381/.364/.714 with two homers and three RBI, building on what has been a strong start to his season. Anderson De Los Santos drove in a team-high five runs despite a modest .118 average, including a homer. Frederick Bencosme added two homers and three RBI of his own, showing some encouraging thump from the lower levels of the system.
On the pitching side, it was a rough week for a couple of names worth tracking. Juaron Watts-Brown, who had been one of Chesapeake’s more reliable arms, was tagged for six earned runs in four innings. Luis De León also struggled, allowing four earned runs in 3.1 innings with three walks. The bright spot was Juan Rojas, who didn’t allow a hit across four innings while striking out six, though the five walks will need to come down. Daniel Lloyd was sharp as well, allowing just one hit in 2.2 scoreless innings with four punchouts.
Question of the Week
How long until Mike Elias’s seat becomes hot?
Let’s start with the ledger. Mike Elias took over as general manager after the 2018 season, inheriting a franchise coming off 115 losses. Seven-plus years later, the Orioles under Elias have gone through a painful but deliberate rebuild, bottomed out with a combined 131-253 record from 2019 to 2021, then surged to 101 wins and an AL East title in 2023, followed by a 91-win wild card berth in 2024. That two-year run earned Elias the 2023 Executive of the Year award and seemed to validate everything. But here’s the part that matters most, the Orioles are 0-5 in the postseason under Elias. Swept by Texas in the 2023 ALDS. Swept by Kansas City in the 2024 Wild Card round. Zero playoff wins and a total record of 496-570 (.465) under Elias.
For all the regular season success, the franchise has not won a single October game during his tenure. Then came the 75-87 disaster of 2025, a season ugly enough to cost Brandon Hyde his job and prompt Elias’s promotion to president of baseball operations, a title change that felt more like an organizational reshuffling than a reward. Now, 34 games into 2026, the O’s sit at 15-19, unable to string together the kind of sustained run that would quiet the doubters. At a certain point, you have to ask what this rebuild has actually produced.
The answer starts with the draft, the centerpiece of the Elias philosophy. He inherited the first overall pick in 2019 and used it on the consensus top choice, Adley Rutschman, who looked like a generational talent early in his career before slipping the last two seasons. He looks to be back on course in the early part of 2026, but he was also a pick anyone could have made. Gunnar Henderson, technically a second-round pick in that same 2019 class, has been the crown jewel of the Elias era, the one prospect who has unambiguously delivered on the hype. After Henderson, though, the returns start to thin out in a hurry.
Heston Kjerstad, drafted second overall in 2020, lost a full year to myocarditis and has never established himself as a big league regular. Coby Mayo, an over-slot fourth rounder from that same class, has struggled mightily at the major league level, with his bat and his glove raising questions about whether he’s a viable everyday player. Colton Cowser, the fifth overall pick in 2021, slashed just .207/.293/.371 in 2025 and has continued to struggle this year. It may be too early to call Mayo a bust but Cowser and Kjerstad are rapidly approaching that territory.
Jackson Holliday, the first overall pick in 2022, owns a career MLB line of .219/.284/.345 and is currently rehabbing in Norfolk after hamate bone surgery. He hasn’t quite lived up to the lofty expectations yet, but there is still time given his age.
Enrique Bradfield Jr., the 2023 first rounder, hasn’t reached the majors yet and hasn’t exactly torn the cover off the ball in the upper minors. Vance Honeycutt (2024) and Ike Irish (2025) are still years away.
The pattern that emerges is somewhat damning. Outside of Henderson, the Orioles’ high draft picks have produced one legitimate All-Star whose production has trended in the wrong direction for two years and a collection of young players who are, at best, still works in progress and, at worst, looking like they may never be the franchise cornerstones they were drafted to become.
Perhaps the most glaring omission of all, Elias has never used a first-round pick on a pitcher. Not once in seven drafts. The only pitching prospect the organization drafted and developed into a big league starter was Grayson Rodriguez, selected 11th overall in 2018, before Elias arrived. Rodriguez was then traded to the Angels last offseason for one year of Taylor Ward.
To his credit, Elias has made some successful acquisitions and a few meaningful long-term commitments. Samuel Basallo looks like a gem from the international pool and his extension, eight years and $67 million, was a smart, team-friendly bet on a 21-year-old catcher and the first real indication that the new ownership group would invest in the core.
Pete Alonso’s five-year, $155 million deal gave the lineup the middle-of-the-order anchor it desperately needed. Ryan Helsley on a two-year, $28 million contract has been one of the few offseason additions that has paid off immediately (until he got hurt), converting all seven save opportunities.
The early returns on his 2026 offseason acquisitions are not all that promising. Pete Alonso started the year ice cold, but he’s heated up recently and the underlying contact quality suggests the bat is coming around. However, for $31 million a year, the Orioles need him to be a middle-of-the-order force, not a guy who runs hot and cold in stretches. Taylor Ward has been the most consistent of the new faces, batting .295 and settling into a regular role and Ryan Helsley has been everything the Orioles hoped, converting all seven save opportunities and looking like a legitimate closer.
The moves to address the starting rotation have not produced the desired results through 34 games. Shane Baz finally earned his first win as an Oriole against Houston, but a 4.50 ERA and a 1-2 record aren’t exactly what you envision from a guy who cost four prospects and was then signed to a long-term deal before even throwing a pitch. Chris Bassitt was historically bad through his first few starts, with an ERA pushing 14 at one point, though he did deliver his best outing of the season this week. Even with that gem, he still sits at 6.75 ERA on the year. Then there’s Zach Eflin, the $10 million depth piece who went down with elbow discomfort in his first start and is now facing Tommy John surgery.
Some of this was foreseeable, and some wasn’t. You can’t blame Elias for the Eflin injury. You can blame him for the fact that Chris Bassitt was the insurance policy for exactly that kind of injury. You can’t blame him for Holliday’s broken hamate bone or Westburg’s elbow injury. You can blame him for a roster construction philosophy that left the team one injury away from running Brandon Young and Cade Povich out there as rotation regulars. Building a rotation that was one Eflin injury away from calling up Trey Gibson to face the first-place Yankees in his major league debut was never deep enough to begin with. Someone may have even pointed this out in their preseason preview: “The rotation is just a few injuries away from relying on AAAA-type arms like Brandon Young, Cade Povich or Tyler Wells, a scenario that should feel all too familiar to anyone who watched the 2025 season unfold.”
It barely took a month to realize this prediction (I wish I had been wrong). The failure to sign either a true top of the rotation arm, or more starting rotation depth (Zac Gallen), was a massive and obvious miss by this front office. And it just may be one that tanks the team this season.
This season was supposed to be the validation of the rebuild’s second act. Instead, the Orioles have been the definition of inconsistent. The offense is currently 14th in OPS+ at 98, slightly below average. Meanwhile, the rotation is now in the bottom six in ERA+ at 94 (25th). On top of that, the defense has been a recurring liability. And the team just began a crucial stretch that includes seven games against the first-place Yankees in their next 16.
So how long until the seat gets hot? The honest answer is that it probably should be warm already. The combination of zero playoff wins, a last-place finish in 2025, a philosophical stubbornness about drafting pitchers, and a 2026 roster that looks like it’s treading water should have the temperature rising. However, there are reasons to think Rubenstein won’t act quickly. Elias was just promoted before last season. The ownership group is still relatively new and has shown a preference for stability. Firing your top baseball executive a year after promoting him would look reactionary, and Rubenstein doesn’t strike me as a reactionary owner.
That said, there is a natural evaluation point. If the Orioles are still hovering around .500 or worse at the All-Star break, with no realistic path to the postseason, the conversation has to get serious. Would it really be a good idea to let Elias handle another trade deadline with the team on the brink of missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the rebuild bottomed out, with a roster that was supposed to be built for sustained contention.
The July trade deadline becomes the line of demarcation. If the team is selling again, if Rogers or Helsley or other pieces are being moved for futures, then you’re essentially acknowledging that the competitive window Elias built has already closed. And if it has closed this quickly, after only two playoff appearances and zero wins, that’s a fireable outcome. I would expect Rubenstein to let the season play out and make a decision in October, but the groundwork for that decision is being laid right now.
As for what the ownership might look for in a replacement, it’s anyone’s guess. Rubenstein would likely want someone who can complement the analytical infrastructure Elias built, not tear it down, while bringing a more balanced roster-construction approach. A GM who understands that you can’t build a contender by hoarding hitting prospects and hoping the pitching takes care of itself.
Someone willing to invest premium draft capital in arms, pursue top-tier free agent pitchers on multi-year deals, and make aggressive trades when the window is open rather than perpetually waiting for the perfect deal. The Elias tenure has developed some solid young position players and a modern front office structure, but it has also left them with a rotation that is perpetually held together with duct tape and optimism. The next executive needs to fix that, or this franchise is going to waste the prime years of Gunnar Henderson wondering what might have been.