With a 3-3 week the Orioles continue to scuffle through the early part of 2026. There were signs of life from the bats and the week looked on a positive trajectory after a blowout win over Boston on Friday. Then the Birds dropped both games over the weekend in embarrassing fashion, outscored 22-4, to a Red Sox team that fired their entire coaching staff Saturday afternoon.
The team is still hanging around .500 and well within striking distance of playoff contention, though the Yankees started pulling away this week in the division. However, some concerning trends persist. Star slugger Pete Alonso has yet to take off in Baltimore and de facto ace Trevor Rogers has struggled for three straight starts. Every time it looks like the team has turned the corner, they seem to kill any momentum the next game.
The Orioles traveled to Kansas City to start the week and took two of three from the last-place Royals, though it was anything but comfortable. All three games were decided by two runs or fewer, and the O’s needed extra innings, a returning All-Star, and a six-run rally just to escape with the series win against a team that entered on an eight-game losing streak.
Monday’s opener was one of the stranger games of the young season. Seth Lugo was dominant for Kansas City, holding the O’s to a single hit through seven innings while striking out seven. Kyle Bradish bent but didn’t break on the other side, allowing ten hits and three walks but somehow limiting the damage to just one run over 5.1 innings. Kansas City loaded the bases three times against Bradish and came away empty each time.
The O’s were lifeless at the plate until Samuel Basallo lined a two-strike single off closer Lucas Erceg to score Dylan Beavers with two outs in the ninth and force extras. The teams traded runs in the 11th, with Beavers singling home Blaze Alexander before Bobby Witt Jr. answered with a two-strike RBI single of his own. In the 12th, Basallo delivered again with a leadoff single to plate the automatic runner, Jeremiah Jackson singled, Weston Wilson walked, and Leody Taveras unloaded a 419-foot grand slam to center field to lead the Birds to a dramatic 7-5 win.
Tuesday’s middle game was a painful one to lose. Shane Baz got an early cushion when Coby Mayo demolished a 439-foot three-run homer in the second inning, his first of the season. Baz couldn’t hold the lead. Two wild pitches helped Kansas City scratch across runs in the second, fifth, and seventh innings, and Baz exited after 6.1 innings having allowed four runs on eight hits.
The big story was the return of Adley Rutschman from the injured list, and he made his presence felt immediately. Adley hit a two-run homer in the eighth, his first of the year, to give the O’s a 5-4 lead, but it didn’t last. Michael Massey answered with a leadoff homer in the bottom of the inning to tie it at five. In the ninth, Ryan Helsley walked Maikel Garcia and Witt to start the inning, then uncorked two wild pitches, the second of which allowed Garcia to race home with the walk-off run. It was Helsley’s second loss of the season and a frustrating ending for the O’s.
Wednesday’s finale was the most Orioles game imaginable. Chris Bassitt and the offense traded leads with Kansas City all afternoon against Michael Wacha, who entered with a 1.00 ERA. Taylor Ward doubled to lead off the game and Pete Alonso followed with a two-run homer. Vinnie Pasquantino answered with a solo shot, and the Royals scratched across two more in the fourth to take a 3-2 lead. The O’s blew it open in the sixth with a Taveras RBI single followed by a Jackson two-run single and a rally-capping three-run homer from Coby Mayo, his second in consecutive days.
The 8-3 lead should have been safe, but Bassitt couldn’t record another out, and he and Cano allowed the Royals to cut it to 8-6. Thankfully Tyler Wells stopped the bleeding, tossing 1.2 scoreless innings to bridge the gap to Anthony Nunez, who earned his first major league save by striking out Witt to end it.
On Friday the Birds welcomed the struggling Red Sox to Camden Yards and the offense looked as good as it has all year. Brandon Young, recalled from Norfolk to replace the injured Dean Kremer (quad strain), earned the start and delivered 5.2 solid innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with five strikeouts. But the story was the lineup’s demolition of Brayan Bello. Gunnar Henderson led off the bottom of the first with a solo homer. Adley Rutschman followed two batters later with a two-run shot, and Dylan Beavers added a solo blast to make it 4-0 before Bello had recorded three outs. Samuel Basallo went deep in the third, and Coby Mayo homered in the fifth for his third straight game with a long ball. Rutschman was the headliner, going 3-for-5 with two homers and six RBI in his best game since returning from the injured list. The O’s racked up 20 hits in total, with Basallo and Taylor Ward collecting four apiece, en route to a dominant 10-3 victory.
Saturday was the polar opposite. Trevor Rogers was knocked out after just 1.2 innings, throwing 47 of his 62 pitches in a brutal second inning in which Boston fouled off 12 pitches and scored three runs. Garrett Crochet shut the O’s down on the other side, firing six scoreless innings while striking out seven. The Birds were eventually forced to throw Weston Wilson out on the mound after the Red Sox feasted on Keegan Akin, leading to a 17-1 loss. Hours after the game, the Red Sox fired manager Alex Cora and several members of his coaching staff, replacing him with Triple-A Worcester manager Chad Tracy on an interim basis.
Sunday’s rubber game was the one that stung. Bradish and Boston lefty Connelly Early were locked in a scoreless pitchers’ duel through four innings before the Red Sox broke through in the fifth. Wilson Contreras broke it open in the fifth with a two-run homer to make it 3-0. Samuel Basallo answered with a solo shot in the bottom of the inning, but Bradish’s day ended there. He went five innings, allowing three runs on four hits with four walks and three strikeouts. The walks continued to be an issue, and his sinker velocity dropped noticeably as the game went on, averaging 95.8 mph in the first inning but dipping to 92.7 by the fifth.
Grant Wolfram came on in the sixth and was immediately shelled, allowing three straight hits, including a Ceddanne Rafaela triple and a Marcelo Mayer RBI single, before being pulled without recording an out. Gunnar crushed a solo homer off Early in the bottom of the sixth to cut it to 5-2 and added an RBI single in the 8th, but that was as close as the O’s would get in a 5-3 loss.
Several Orioles had strong weeks at the plate, starting with Basallo, who went 9-for-16 (.562) with two homers, a double, four RBI, and a .632 on-base percentage. He delivered the clutch ninth-inning hit that saved the Royals opener and continued to hit all weekend against Boston, collecting four hits in Friday’s blowout alone. Coby Mayo also had a huge week, slugging three homers in 15 at-bats with seven RBI and a 1.333 OPS. His homer streak stretched to three consecutive games before it ended, and both blasts in Kansas City were towering shots that reminded everyone why the organization still believes in him.
On the pitching side, Anthony Nunez quietly put together one of the more impressive weeks from any reliever, tossing four scoreless innings across multiple appearances while allowing just one hit and striking out four. He picked up his first career save in the Royals finale, striking out Bobby Witt Jr. to end the game, and also earned the win in the 12-inning opener. For a young arm in a bullpen that has been stretched thin all season, Nunez is starting to look like a reliable late-inning option.
The Player of the Week award, though, goes to Adley Rutschman. Rutschman went 7-for-17 (.412) with three home runs and eight RBI, posting a .941 slugging percentage and a 1.353 OPS. Friday’s performance against Boston was the highlight, a 3-for-5 night with two homers and six RBI that was comfortably the best game of his season. The timing matters as much as the production. Rutschman missed time with left ankle inflammation and only returned to the lineup on Tuesday in Kansas City. He homered in his first game back, and by Friday he looked like the middle-of-the-order anchor this team has been missing. It is no coincidence that the offense’s best stretch of the season has coincided with Rutschman’s return. When he is healthy and locked in, the entire lineup changes shape around him. If the ankle holds up, the Orioles might finally have the offensive catalyst they have been missing.
Down on the Farm
The biggest news out of Norfolk this week was unfortunately another setback for Jackson Holliday. After passing through a brief stint at High-A Frederick, Holliday returned to the Tides on Tuesday but lasted just one at-bat before leaving the game in obvious pain after a foul tip aggravated his surgically repaired right hand. He was sent to Baltimore for an MRI, which thankfully revealed no new structural damage. Holliday said Friday that the plan is to shut down for roughly a week to let the inflammation subside before beginning yet another rehab window.
Norfolk had a middling week, but a few bats stood out. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, acquired in the offseason, led the way at the plate with a .409/.440/.682 line, a homer, and seven RBI across the week. He is starting to look comfortable in the lineup after a slow adjustment period. Jud Fabian continued his strong season, slashing .304/.448/.565 with two homers and six RBI while drawing five walks. Fabian’s plate discipline has been a pleasant surprise this year, and he is making a case for a look at the next level if an outfield spot opens up. Creed Willems hit .333/.417/.333 in a quieter week for the catching prospect, collecting seven hits but no extra-base knocks.
On the mound, Trey Gibson turned in the best start of the week, going 7.2 innings and allowing just two earned runs while striking out eight. Cade Povich made a solid start as well, giving up three runs in six innings with five strikeouts. With Dean Kremer now on the injured list and Brandon Young pitching his way into the big league rotation conversation, the depth in Norfolk continues to matter.
Down at AA Chesapeake, Anderson De Los Santos was the offensive standout, posting a .368/.455/.684 line with three doubles, a homer, and four RBI. The 22-year-old has been one of the more quietly productive hitters in the system this year. Carter Young drove in seven runs on the week despite a modest .214 average, with a solo homer contributing to a .429 slugging percentage. The real story in Chesapeake was on the mound, where Trace Bright put together an outstanding line across two starts: eight innings, one hit, 15 strikeouts, and one earned run. The strikeout numbers are electric, though six walks over those eight innings keep it from being a truly clean line. Still, it was the kind of performance that gets you on the prospect radar in a hurry. Ben Vespi also impressed with 4.1 innings of one-hit, shutout ball and five strikeouts.
Question of the Week
What is wrong with Trevor Rogers?
After three starts replicating his ace form of 2025, Rogers has returned to Earth faster than the Artemis II crew. His first three outings of 2026 were vintage Rogers, the same pitcher who dominated the second half of last season: Nineteen innings, 15 hits, 14 strikeouts, zero home runs, and a 1.89 ERA. His last three starts tell a very different story: 11.1 innings, 19 hits, 12 earned runs, 13 strikeouts, three home runs, and a 9.53 ERA. Saturday’s disaster against Boston was the low point, with Rogers lasting just 1.2 innings on 62 pitches. He threw 47 pitches in the second inning alone, with Boston fouling off 14, including 12 in that frame. He simply could not finish anyone off.
So what happened? Did Rogers all of a sudden lose his stuff? The underlying numbers suggest otherwise, though they also predicted that some type of regression was coming sooner or later.
Let’s start with what the numbers actually say. Rogers’ expected stats have barely changed from 2025. His xwOBA in 2026 sits at .305 compared to .288 last year. His xBA is .238 versus .225. His hard-hit rate has actually improved, dropping from 48.4% to 31.6%, and his barrel rate is down too, from 7.6% to 6.3%. Average exit velocity against him is lower. By the metrics that measure the quality of contact he is allowing, Rogers has been better this year than he was during his dominant 2025 stretch.
The problem is that his actual results have cratered while the underlying quality has held steady. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) has jumped from .228 to .318, suggesting that opposing hitters are simply finding the holes more. His wOBA allowed has gone from .226 to .339. That gap between expected and actual results is enormous, and it works in both directions. In 2025, Rogers was one of the biggest overperformers in baseball. FanGraphs noted at the time that his xERA sat at 3.40 while his actual ERA was below 2.00, and his .226 BABIP was well below any sustainable level. Some of what we are seeing now is the bill coming due for that overperformance. The batted ball luck that suppressed his numbers last year has flipped, and the results have followed.
That does not mean this is purely a luck story, though. There are real mechanical indicators that suggest something has shifted in how Rogers attacks hitters. His rate of hitting the strike zone has dropped from 55.4% to 44.7%. When he does throw in the zone, hitters are making more contact, with his zone contact rate climbing from 79.8% to 85.3%. His chase rate and whiff rate are both fine, which tells you he can still get hitters to expand and miss. The issue is what happens when he challenges hitters in the zone, particularly with two strikes.
The clearest problem is the four-seam fastball. In 2025, opponents hit .158 with a .222 wOBA against Rogers’ four-seamer, and it produced a 29.4% strikeout rate. In 2026, those numbers have ballooned to .289, .358, and 16.3%. His putaway rate with the pitch has dropped from 23.3% to 13.3%. On Saturday, he went 0-for-11 on putaway attempts with the four-seamer. The velocity is fine, sitting at 92.5 mph compared to 93.0 last year, and the pitch is still generating whiffs. The shape and the stuff have not fallen off a cliff, but hitters are doing more damage when they do make contact, and Rogers is having a harder time burying hitters with the pitch when he gets ahead.
So where does that leave us? I think the truth about Rogers sits somewhere between ace and turning into a pumpkin. The underlying stats suggest he is closer to the optimistic end than the pessimistic one. The stats say he is essentially the same pitcher he was last year, and last year he was very good. But last year he was also the beneficiary of an unsustainable BABIP and an ERA that outran his underlying peripherals by a wide margin.
The real Rogers is probably not the 1.81 ERA version from 2025, as we all suspected, but he is also not the 9.53 ERA version from the last three starts either. He is likely a pitcher with an ERA in the mid-3.00s, one who can be a quality number two or three starter if he can solve the four-seamer finishing problem.
The encouraging part is that this looks fixable. His velocity has not dipped dramatically. His secondary pitches are still effective, particularly the sweeper, which has maintained its run value from 2025. The issue is specific and identifiable: he needs to find a way to put hitters away with the fastball when he gets to two strikes, whether that means locating it better, using it less in those counts, or leaning more heavily on the changeup and sweeper as finishing pitches.
Rogers is too talented and too important to this rotation for anyone to panic after three rough starts. But the front office and coaching staff should be aware that the dominant version of Rogers from 2025 was, at least in part, a mirage (which is why they should have signed another top-end pitcher in the offseason). The pitcher they have now is still good. He is just not unhittable, and adjusting expectations accordingly might be the healthiest thing for everyone involved.