Group: I — France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway

How they Qualified: Won UEFA Group I with a perfect record. Norway went 8-0-0, scored 37 goals, conceded five, and sealed qualification with a 4-1 win away to Italy at San Siro. It is their first World Cup appearance since 1998.

Best World Cup Finish: Round of 16 (1938, 1998)

Transfermarkt Roster Value: $592.7 M

FIFA Rank: 32

Odds to Win Group: +275

Odds to Advance: -900

Odds to Win Cup: 30-1

Key Players:

  • Erling Haaland — Striker — Manchester City (Premier League). Haaland is the obvious reason Norway have gone from long-running disappointment to legitimate World Cup dark horse. He scored 16 goals in qualifying, including two in the 4-1 win away to Italy that officially sent Norway through. He is among the four or five best players in the world right now. Transfermarkt values him at $235.2m, making him one of the most valuable players in the tournament. If Norway are going to survive this group, the path is pretty simple: get Haaland chances and trust that he will finish them.
  • Martin Ødegaard — Midfielder — Arsenal (Premier League). Ødegaard is the player who makes Norway more than just a team launching balls toward Haaland. Transfermarkt values him at $76.4m. He is the creative conductor in Solbakken’s setup. His fitness is one of the key storylines because he missed Norway’s March friendly against the Netherlands with a knee issue. A healthy Ødegaard gives Norway passing, rhythm and the ability to break teams down without becoming one-dimensional.
  • Antonio Nusa — Winger — RB Leipzig (Germany). Nusa gives Norway the wide threat they need to keep defenses from collapsing completely onto Haaland. Transfermarkt values him at $37.6m, and he projects as part of the front three with Haaland and Alexander Sørloth. Norway’s best attacking version is not just Haaland standing between two center backs. It is Haaland occupying the middle, Ødegaard finding pockets, and Nusa stretching the game with pace and one-on-one ability.

Playing Style and Outlook

Norway are probably the most dangerous team in this part of the countdown, and maybe the strangest. They are ranked 32nd by FIFA, but 12th in the world by Transfermarkt roster value. They have not played in a World Cup since 1998, but they have one of the best strikers in the sport, one of the Premier League’s best playmakers, and enough attacking depth that this is no longer just a two-man team.

Under Ståle Solbakken, the basic shape is a 4-3-3 that can tilt into something closer to a 4-2-2-2. Their projected lineup has Ørjan Nyland in goal, Julian Ryerson and David Møller Wolfe at fullback, Kristoffer Ajer and Leo Østigård in central defense, Sander Berge and Patrick Berg stabilizing midfield, Ødegaard as the creative hub, and a front line of Sørloth, Haaland and Nusa. That is a real team, not just a superstar pasted onto a middling national side.

The attack is the reason to believe. Norway were absurd in qualifying, with eight wins, 37 goals, and a plus-32 goal difference. Haaland scored 16 of those goals, but the system around him deserves credit too. Sørloth gives them more size and a second central target. Nusa gives them width and dribbling. Ødegaard gives them the pass before the pass, the final ball, and the control that keeps the whole thing from becoming too direct. When it clicks, Norway can look like a team built in a lab to punish every defensive mistake.

The question is whether the defense and midfield can survive the step up. Italy were the big name in their qualifying group, but this World Cup group is a different kind of test. France are one of the favorites to win the entire tournament. Senegal have enough athleticism and experience to make the middle of the field uncomfortable. Iraq should be the weakest team in Group I, but they are coming in with all the emotional energy of a country playing its first World Cup since 1986.

The opener against Iraq is enormous. Norway cannot afford to make the Senegal match a must-win by stumbling in the first game. Iraq will likely defend deep, play direct, and try to turn the match into a long, tense test of patience. That is exactly where Ødegaard matters. Norway need him to be the lock picker to avoid becoming “cross and hope” against a low block. They need movement around Haaland, quick switches, and enough patience to let the talent advantage show.

The Senegal match is probably the defining game of the group. France are the favorite, Iraq are the underdog, and Norway-Senegal feels like the second-place fight, even with the expanded format giving third-place teams a chance. Senegal are more balanced defensively and more experienced in recent major tournaments. Norway have the better top-end attacking weapons. That contrast makes it one of the best group-stage matchups in the tournament. If Norway win it, they are probably through. If they lose it, they may need something against France in the finale.

The France match is the measuring stick. Norway probably do not need to beat France to have a successful group stage, but they need to show they can compete with that level of athleticism and depth. France can punish the exact spaces Norway sometimes leave when their fullbacks push and the midfield opens up. If Norway are chasing the game, that could get dangerous quickly. But France also will not love dealing with Haaland and Ødegaard.

Norway are one of the few non-traditional contenders with a clear path to scaring elite teams. They can score against anyone. They have the Golden Boot favorite. They have a playmaker who can actually feed him. They have enough supporting attackers that opponents cannot just build a whole plan around one player.

The ceiling is a real knockout run if the bracket breaks right and Haaland gets hot. The realistic floor is a disappointing third place group finish and a round of 32 exit. But either way, Norway are back at the World Cup with their best generation in decades, and for the first time in a long time, they are not just happy to be there.