Group: F — Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia

How they Qualified: Won AFC third-round Group C and became the first non-host nation to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Japan clinched their place with a 2-0 win over Bahrain, with Daichi Kamada and Takefusa Kubo scoring the second-half goals.

Best World Cup Finish: Round of 16 (2002, 2010, 2018, 2022)

Transfermarkt Roster Value: $310.3 M

FIFA Rank: 18

Odds to Win Group: +250

Odds to Advance: -400

Odds to Win Cup: 65-1

Key Players:

  • Takefusa Kubo — Winger/Attacking Midfielder — Real Sociedad (Spain). Kubo is Japan’s most valuable player at $35.3m, and with Kaoru Mitoma ruled out, he becomes even more important as the main source of invention in the final third. He scored the second goal in the qualifying-clinching win over Bahrain and gives Japan the kind of left-footed creativity that can turn a well-organized team into a dangerous one.
  • Wataru Endo — Midfielder — Liverpool (Premier League). Endo is not the most valuable player in the squad, but he is still the organizer and one of the emotional leaders. Hajime Moriyasu called him a “central figure” when naming the World Cup squad, even though Endo has dealt with injuries this season. In a group with the Netherlands’ midfield quality, Sweden’s physicality and Tunisia’s directness, Japan need Endo to give them structure.
  • Ritsu Doan — Winger — Eintracht Frankfurt (Germany). Doan is valued at $23.5m and gives Japan another proven attacking option without Mitoma. He is direct, smart between the lines, and already has World Cup pedigree after scoring against both Germany and Spain in Qatar. Japan’s attack can be technical and patient, but Doan gives it a little more punch around the box.

Playing Style and Outlook

Japan are no longer a cute underdog story. They are one of the most complete teams outside the traditional powers, and their results over the last few years back that up. They beat Germany and Spain at the 2022 World Cup, reached the Round of 16 before losing to Croatia on penalties, then became the first non-host team to qualify for 2026. More recently, they beat England 1-0 at Wembley, a result that pushed Moriyasu to say Japan can beat anyone, even while admitting it was the kind of match they also could have lost.

Japan are fairly tactically flexible. In their recent matches the Samurai Blue have organized in a back three, with danger through wingbacks, comfortable defending without the ball, and ruthless when they get chances to break.

The base shape is usually a 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-3, depending on the opponent, with high wingbacks, a midfield double pivot, and a front three built around Takefusa Kubo’s creativity. That shape was used in the March friendlies against Scotland and England, and it gave both teams problems because Japan could defend compactly, then release runners quickly into the channels once they won the ball.

Japan are good enough to beat almost anyone in a single match, but not quite talented enough to coast through a difficult group. Against England, they survived long stretches of pressure and won through a counterattack finished by star attacker Kaoru Mitoma. Their problem is Mitoma just sustained a hamstring injury that will likely force him to miss the World Cup, removing one of their best one-on-one attackers and transition threats.

That shifts more responsibility onto Kubo, Doan, Daichi Kamada, Daizen Maeda, Keito Nakamura and the center-forward group. Japan still have depth, but Mitoma’s absence changes the ceiling. They may have to create more collectively rather than relying on one winger to beat defenders and tilt the field by himself. Kubo can do some of that. Doan can help. Kamada can arrive from midfield. Maeda can press and run. The attack is a little less scary without Mitoma’s pure dribbling, but the defense and midfield are still strong enough to make Japan a very difficult opponent. Endo’s fitness matters because he gives the team balance and leadership.

Group F is one of the better ones in the tournament. The Netherlands are the favorite, but Japan are not far behind in terms of overall coherence. Sweden are dangerous because of their striker talent and Tunisia are the kind of opponent that can turn one match into a grind.

The opener against the Netherlands is a huge opportunity. Japan do not have to win it, but a draw would change the whole group. The Tunisia match is the one they simply cannot waste, especially because it comes before what could be a high-pressure finale against Sweden. If Japan enter that final match needing a result, it may come down to whether their technical midfield can control Sweden’s physicality and whether Kubo or Doan can provide the moment Mitoma might have provided before the injury.

Japan are good enough to win this group if the Netherlands stumble, and they have proven they can beat the type of top-end opponents they may meet in the knockout rounds. The concern is whether they have enough individual attacking punch without Mitoma to finally get past the Round of 16. This is a mature, well-coached, tournament-tested team. Now they will look to push farther than they ever have before.