Group: G — Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand

How they Qualified: Won UEFA Group J. Belgium finished the campaign unbeaten, sealing qualification with a 7-0 win over Liechtenstein after Jeremy Doku and Charles De Ketelaere both scored twice. They finished two points ahead of Wales.

Best World Cup Finish: 3rd Place (2018)

Transfermarkt Roster Value: $656.4 M

FIFA Rank: 9

Odds to Win Group: -230

Odds to Advance: -3500

Odds to Win Cup: 35-1

Key Players:

  • Kevin De Bruyne — Midfielder — Napoli (Italy). De Bruyne is 34 now and no longer among the very top players in the world, but he is still the brain of Belgium’s attack. Belgium have more speed and younger legs around him now, but De Bruyne is still the player most capable of turning that into actual chances with one pass. He joined Napoli after a 10-year Manchester City run that included 19 trophies, 108 goals and 177 assists in all competitions. He has 117 caps, 36 goals and 53 assists in his international career for Belgium.
  • Jeremy Doku — Winger — Manchester City (Premier League). Doku is Belgium’s most important transition weapon now. Transfermarkt values him at $76.4m, making him the most valuable player in the current Belgian squad, and he contributed five goals and two assists in qualifying. Doku is a nightmare one v one, requiring teams to send a second defender at him at almost all times. He has been a focal point of the Man City attack this season and will fill the same role for Belgium.
  • Thibaut Courtois — Goalkeeper — Real Madrid (Spain). Courtois gives Belgium a level of last-line security that most teams in this range simply do not have. Transfermarkt values him at $21.2m, and his return from injury is a major boost for the squad. Belgium’s defense is no longer the veteran wall it once was, which makes Courtois even more important. He was the critical factor in their 2018 third place run. If they get stretched or give up chances in transition, he is the player who can erase mistakes.

Playing Style and Outlook

Belgium are not quite the golden generation anymore, but they are not some hollowed-out leftover either. This a team in transition, with De Bruyne, Courtois, Romelu Lukaku and Axel Witsel still around for one more run, while Doku, De Ketelaere, Amadou Onana, Zeno Debast, Maxim De Cuyper and others are pushing the team into a different era. They are less complete than the 2018 peak, but maybe a little freer from the pressure that followed that group for years.

Under Rudi Garcia, Belgium have mostly been a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 team. They lean on their wide pace, with De Bruyne controlling tempo from an advanced midfield spot, and a pressing structure that tries to win the ball high and attack quickly. Doku gives them the pure one-on-one threat. De Bruyne gives them the final ball. De Ketelaere gives them a more fluid front-line option. Lukaku, if fit, gives them a true penalty-box reference point.

The most encouraging recent sign was the March friendly against the United States, when Belgium won 5-2 without Courtois or Lukaku. It was only a friendly, and the U.S. had its own issues, but the game showed how dangerous Belgium can be when Doku and De Bruyne are running the attack. That is the version that can overwhelm this group, a fast, direct, creative, team, capable of turning one turnover into a goal almost immediately.

The concern is the defense. The Kompany-Vertonghen-Alderweireld era is gone, and what replaces it is more uncertain. Arthur Theate, Debast, Brandon Mechele, Koni De Winter and De Cuyper give Garcia options, but not the same level of big-tournament certainty. The defensive rebuild increases the risk of getting exposed when the fullbacks push forward. Courtois helps a lot, and Onana can protect the back line, but Belgium still look like a team that may have to outscore some opponents.

Lukaku is the other storyline. Garcia included him despite a season wrecked by hamstring trouble, where he had played only about an hour of competitive football this season when the squad was named. Garcia still called him indispensable, citing both his leadership and his 89 goals for Belgium, while admitting he did not know if Lukaku would be 100% for the opener. That epitomizes Belgium in this World Cup, if the old core has one more tournament in its legs, the ceiling rises; if not, the younger attackers have to carry more than planned.

The draw is kind, making Belgium a heavy favorite to at a minimum advance in second place. Egypt have danger in Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush and Iran are disciplined enough to make a game uncomfortable. But Belgium are still rightly heavy favorites and could easily sweep the group.

The opener against Egypt is the key. Win that, and Belgium probably control the group from the start. Drop points, and the Iran match becomes more awkward because Iran are comfortable turning games into tense, low-margin contests. Belgium have enough talent to avoid that, but their 2022 group-stage exit is still a reminder that Belgian talent alone does not guarantee anything.

The most likely outcome is that Belgium win Group G and enter the knockouts as a dangerous but flawed team. They are not in the innermost circle of favorites anymore, and the defense probably keeps them out of that tier. But with De Bruyne passing, Doku running at defenders, Courtois behind them, and Lukaku possibly available for the big moments, Belgium still have enough high-end pieces to punish anyone who treats them like yesterday’s story.